Oil prices have fallen below $80 a barrel following the U.S.-Iran agreement, but don't expect airlines to start slashing ticket prices just yet. According to a report from Business Insider, analysts say carriers have little incentive to roll back fares or baggage fees, even with cheaper fuel.

Data from KAYAK shows that average U.S. domestic fares climbed about 8% after the war began, while international prices rose around 18%. Aviation and travel analysts point to limited seat availability and steady demand as key factors keeping prices high. There's also uncertainty around the agreement itself, including the fact that Israel isn't directly part of the negotiations.

Jet fuel prices have indeed dropped. According to Airlines For America, the spot price for a gallon of jet fuel on Tuesday was around $2.80 in the U.S., down from $3.95 on May 18. That's a significant decline, but it hasn't translated into cheaper tickets.

Baggage fees, meanwhile, have gone up. Many major carriers now charge between $40 and $50 per checked bag each way. Southwest Airlines Co. (LUV) ended its long-standing "two bags fly free" policy, and the move actually boosted earnings.

Savanthi Sath, an analyst at Raymond James, said meaningful fare declines would likely require either more seats in the market or weaker demand, and she doesn't expect either to happen soon. "Capacity through August is likely mostly finalized by now," Sath said, adding that more capacity could be added around the fourth quarter if needed.

Sally French, a travel analyst at NerdWallet, noted that the fare outlook has also been shaped by the collapse of Spirit Aviation Holdings Inc. (FLYYQ) in May, which removed a source of cheaper tickets. "With fewer seats and one fewer ultra-low-cost carrier, we're generally not seeing the kind of downward pressure on fares that budget-conscious travelers want," French said.

The Iran deal itself has been controversial. President Donald Trump's agreement could reportedly allow Tehran access to $300 billion in reconstruction funds and potentially open the door to charges on ships transiting through the Strait of Hormuz. Sen. Adam Schiff (D-CA) called the deal a "thorough capitulation," while economist Robert Reich termed it a "terrible failure" that led to loss of lives and billions of dollars.

Shipping companies have said tankers won't operate in the region until there's tangible proof of an agreement and a change in the situation. Shipping costs have surged since the closure of the Strait, with the market average cost of shipping a 40-foot container from the Far East to the U.S. West Coast recently at $4,047.

So while oil prices are down, don't expect your next flight to be any cheaper. Airlines are enjoying the benefits of lower fuel costs without the pressure to pass them on to passengers.