Ondas Holdings (ONDS) is having a good Tuesday, and the reason is pretty straightforward: analysts at Needham are doubling down on their bullish view, keeping a $23 price target and a buy rating on the stock. The catalyst? A defense software deal that looks like it could be a real needle-mover.

In a note released May 19, Needham argued that Ondas' recent moves have significantly improved its long-term trajectory. The firm focused heavily on the company's acquisition of Omnisys, describing it as one of the most strategically important deals in Ondas history. Why? Because Omnisys adds a software orchestration layer to Ondas' autonomous systems portfolio — and it's not some theoretical product. Omnisys is already a battle-tested, profitable software platform used in advanced missile defense applications. That means Ondas gets immediate exposure to higher-margin defense software capabilities, which is a big deal for a company that's been building out its autonomous warfare platform.

Financially, the numbers look promising. Needham estimated that Omnisys could contribute between $30 million and $40 million in pro forma 2026 revenue. And the firm sees even stronger upside in 2027 as Ondas expands adoption across allied defense markets. That's on top of Ondas' existing momentum: the company recently reported first-quarter revenue of $50.1 million and raised its full-year 2026 outlook to more than $390 million. It also has a partnership with Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR), which adds another layer of credibility to its defense software push.

So, what does the stock chart say? From a longer-term perspective, ONDS is still in an uptrend. It's trading 14.8% above its 200-day simple moving average (SMA) of $8.77, and the 50-day SMA remains above the 200-day SMA — that golden cross from July 2025 is still intact. But the picture gets a bit muddier on the shorter term. The stock is trading 3.6% below its 100-day SMA of $10.44, and while it's 4.7% above its 20-day SMA of $9.61 and 2.3% above its 50-day SMA of $9.84, the 20-day SMA is still below the 50-day SMA. That's a bearish near-term alignment, which means the stock might need to prove itself before breaking higher.

Key levels to watch: resistance at $12 and support at $8.50. As of Tuesday's publication, Ondas shares were up 9% at $9.88, according to market data. That's a nice pop, but it's still below that 100-day SMA — so the next few days could be telling.