Shares of GFL Environmental Inc. (GFL) are taking a hit today after the company announced it's buying SECURE Waste Infrastructure Corp for about $6.4 billion. Investors aren't exactly throwing confetti—the stock is down, and it's not hard to see why when you look at how this deal is being paid for.

The environmental services company plans to finance the acquisition through a combination of 80% in GFL subordinate voting shares and 20% in cash. That's a lot of stock being issued, which can make existing shareholders nervous about dilution. SECURE shareholders, on the other hand, get to choose their payout: $24.75 in cash, 0.4195 GFL subordinate voting shares, or a mix of $4.95 in cash plus 0.3356 GFL shares per share they hold.

What's in the Deal?

Under the terms, GFL is acquiring all outstanding common shares of SECURE for $24.75 per share. That represents a 23% premium to SECURE's 60-day volume-weighted average price as of April 10, 2026. So, SECURE investors are getting a nice bump, but GFL shareholders are left wondering if it's worth the price tag.

This acquisition is all about expanding GFL's waste management services, particularly in Western Canada, where SECURE has a strong presence. The deal is expected to close in the second half of 2026, assuming all the usual regulatory and closing conditions are met. Once it's done, SECURE common shares will be delisted from the TSX and will no longer be a reporting issuer under Canadian securities laws.

As of Dec. 31, GFL had a cash position of $85.6 million. That's not a huge war chest, which might explain why they're leaning so heavily on stock to fund this purchase.

Why GFL Thinks This Is a Good Idea

GFL is betting that combining with SECURE's assets—which come with strong margins and lower maintenance capital needs—will boost its Adjusted EBITDA margin to 31.6% and its Adjusted Free Cash Flow conversion to a range of 40.5%–42.5%. The company also expects the deal to be immediately accretive to Adjusted Free Cash Flow per share by 12%–15%.

With greater scale after the acquisition, GFL says it will have increased capacity for capital deployment while keeping net leverage in the low-to-mid 3x range by year-end. In other words, they're hoping to grow without overextending themselves financially.

What the CEO Has to Say

Patrick Dovigi, founder and CEO of GFL, put a positive spin on things. "The acquisition of SECURE will provide us with a highly complementary network of permitted waste processing and disposal assets that will densify our footprint in Western Canada, significantly enhance our scale and expand our ability to offer customers a full suite of waste management services," he said.

Dovigi added, "The transaction reinforces GFL's goal of creating long-term equity value for our shareholders and is expected to significantly accelerate the achievement of the multi-year financial targets we outlined at our Investor Day in early 2025."

How the Stock Is Doing Technically

While the broader market is showing mixed performance—with the S&P 500 up 0.04% and the Dow Jones down 0.39%—GFL's decline stands out. At $39.11, GFL is trading 7.3% below its 20-day simple moving average of $42.17 and 10% below its 100-day SMA of $43.40, suggesting both short-term and intermediate-term weakness.

The stock has seen a 12-month decline of 20.22%, and it's currently hovering near its 52-week low of $38.60. Key resistance sits at $45.50, while support is at $38.50. If that support level breaks, things could get even uglier.

Earnings and What Analysts Think

GFL Environmental is set to provide its next financial update on April 29. Here's what analysts are expecting:

• EPS Estimate: 6 cents (up from a loss of six cents)
• Revenue Estimate: $1.19 billion (up from $1.09 billion)
• Valuation: Forward P/E of 106.6x (which indicates a premium valuation)

The stock still carries a Buy rating from analysts, with an average price target of $50.84. Recent moves include:

• JP Morgan: Neutral (raised target to $49 on April 10)
• RBC Capital: Outperform (raised target to $60 on Feb. 12)
• Scotiabank: Sector Outperform (lowered target to $56 on Feb. 12)

MarketDash data shows GFL Environmental shares were down 7.88% at $39.66 at the time of publication on Monday.