Here's a counterintuitive bit of consumer behavior: when gasoline prices shoot up and start draining wallets, Americans don't stop eating out. They just stop eating out at the fancy places.

Instead, they head for the drive-thru and order a pizza. This isn't just a hunch—it's the clear finding from two decades of credit and debit card data analyzed by Bank of America.

In a research note published Monday, analyst Sara Senatore dug into aggregated card data across every major fuel price cycle since 2005. The central conclusion is pretty simple. When gas gets expensive, people still need to drive. So they pay the pump, and then quietly reshuffle whatever money is left in their budget. Discretionary spending takes the hit... except in one specific corner of the economy.

Gas Demand Is Inelastic, Your Wallet Isn't

The first, crucial finding is about structure. When gas prices rise, consumers don't meaningfully cut back on how much they drive. The Bank of America data shows gasoline spending increases almost as fast as the price per gallon itself. The quantity of gas purchased barely budges, even during sharp price surges.

So the gas station gets paid. Everything else in the budget gets squeezed.

That squeeze isn't evenly distributed. According to Senatore's analysis, overall discretionary spending growth slows to an annualized rate of 2.9% during high-gas-price periods, compared to a long-term trend of 3.6%. Non-gas necessities like groceries and utilities slow more modestly. The biggest single slowdown is in auto-related spending, which decelerates sharply.

Restaurants as a broad category also slow down. But within that category, the numbers tell two very different stories.

The Trade-Down That Runs to the Drive-Through

Here's where it gets interesting. Casual dining contracts. Fast casual slows down. But quick-service restaurants—your classic fast food and pizza joints—actually accelerate.

Spending growth at QSRs jumps to 7.3% during gas spikes, up from a long-term rate of 5.1%. Pizza chains are the standout, accelerating to 7.8%.

"QSR spend growth also accelerates when gas spend rises (7.28% vs 5.12% CAGR), signaling efforts to economize by trading down to QSRs (pizza and non-pizza)," Senatore said.

The mechanism is what she calls a "share-of-stomach" shift. There's some evidence consumers substitute food at home for food away from home. But the bigger move is a rotation within dining out itself—from nicer restaurants to cheaper, faster ones. And within that cheaper category, growth at chain restaurants slows less than at independent spots, meaning the budget-conscious consumer gravitates toward familiar brand names.

Income amplifies the effect. Households earning under $20,000 a year slow their discretionary spending growth to just 0.71% during gas spikes—way below their 4.49% long-term trend. That's the core demographic for QSR value menus. When lower-income consumers feel the gas pinch the hardest, they lean the hardest on dollar menus and pizza deals.

Where the Money Goes During a Gas Spike

Source: BofA Securities, "Restaurants Industry: Gas money," Sara Senatore, April 13, 2026.

The Stocks That May Benefit From the Trade Down

The Bank of America report didn't name specific companies, but the category breakdown points directly to major players in the U.S. stock market. Pizza QSR is the single strongest-performing segment in the data—growing 2.7 percentage points above its long-term trend. That positions pure-play delivery chains as the most direct beneficiaries.

Domino's Pizza Inc. (DPZ) is the clearest expression of this trade. The company operates almost entirely within the pizza delivery and carry-out format that the data identifies as the outperforming segment. Its first-quarter 2026 earnings, due April 27, will be the first report to capture the March gas price spike.

McDonald's Corp. (MCD) offers the broadest QSR exposure. Its value menu positioning historically drives traffic gains when household budgets get tight.

Yum! Brands Inc. (YUM) captures the trend through Pizza Hut's delivery network, alongside Taco Bell—whose low average check makes it a natural destination for consumers trimming dining spend.

Papa John's International Inc. (PZZA) is the most leveraged pure-play pizza name, though its smaller scale and recent franchise challenges add execution risk alongside the category tailwind.

The Timing Caveat

Here's the catch: to date, high-frequency card data doesn't show restaurant spending slowing yet. Year-over-year restaurant growth decelerated from 3.6% in February to 1.3% in March, but the two-year stacked rate actually improved slightly.

"The recency of the gas spike suggests that consumers may be waiting to determine whether the increase in gas prices is transitory. The ~6-month average duration of prior trough to peak cycles suggests that consumers adapt only when price increases persist," Senatore said.

In other words, the QSR trade isn't priced for a cycle that hasn't fully arrived at the consumer's decision point. With gas above $4 a gallon and supply disruptions ongoing, history says the rotation into fast food and pizza is coming. It just hasn't shown up in the data yet.