So much for that diplomatic breakthrough. U.S. stock futures, which had been riding high on hopes of de-escalation between the U.S. and Iran, took a step back Tuesday morning. The mood shifted after senior Iranian officials flatly rejected President Donald Trump's claim that the two nations had held "very good and productive talks."

It turns out the market-moving post on Truth Social might have been more about moving markets than moving diplomacy. Iran's Parliament Speaker, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, said in a social media post that "no negotiations" happened and suggested Trump's announcement was a way to manipulate financial markets. Ouch. That sent futures for the Dow and S&P 500 into the red, with only the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 futures clinging to a slight gain.

Meanwhile, the bond market was relatively steady. The 10-year Treasury yield was at 4.35%, with the two-year at 3.86%. Traders, according to the CME's FedWatch tool, are pretty confident (85.5% chance) the Fed will hold rates steady at its next meeting in April.

Here’s a quick snapshot of how the major index futures were shaping up:

The popular ETFs that track these indexes reflected the split. The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) was down 0.053% at $655.03 in premarket trading, while the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (QQQ), which follows the Nasdaq 100, advanced 0.034% to $588.20.

Stocks on the Move

Beyond the geopolitical headlines, there was plenty of company-specific action to watch.

Applied Optoelectronics

Shares of Applied Optoelectronics Inc. (AAOI) jumped 4.16% before the bell. The catalyst? The company announced that one of its major hyperscale data center customers placed an initial volume order for 800G transceivers. The order is a big one, totaling more than $53 million. Market data indicates the stock has maintained a strong price trend across short, medium, and long-term timeframes.

Oracle

Oracle Corp. (ORCL) shares were up 0.62%. The software giant is pushing further into AI, updating its AI Agent Studio for Fusion Applications with new tools like an Agentic Applications Builder and ROI dashboards. The idea is to help companies move beyond simple AI assistants to more autonomous, outcome-driven systems. Despite the news, market data shows the stock has been in a weak trend with a poor value ranking.

Tower Semiconductor and Coherent

It was a good morning for Tower Semiconductor Ltd. (TSEM) and Coherent Corp. (COHR). TSEM was up 1.90% and COHR gained 3.12% after Tower announced a new silicon photonics milestone achieved with Coherent. The development could strengthen Tower's hand in the competitive markets for next-gen AI and datacenter networking. TSEM's stock shows a strong price trend and a solid quality score in market rankings.

Apollo Global Management

On the downside, shares of Apollo Global Management (APO) tumbled 2.57%. The alternative asset manager's Apollo Debt Solutions unit decided to restrict investor withdrawals from its $25 billion debt fund. In separate news, Apollo also announced a strategic investment in glass manufacturer NSG Group. Market data indicates APO has a weak price trend but a solid growth score.

GameStop

The meme stock favorite, GameStop Corp. (GME), was essentially flat, down a scant 0.043%. All eyes are on the company's quarterly earnings report due after the closing bell. Analysts are expecting earnings of 37 cents per share on revenue of $1.47 billion. Market data shows a mixed trend for GME: weak in the short and long term, but strong in the medium term, with a solid growth score.

Monday's Rally in Review

The cautious tone Tuesday followed a sharp rally in the previous session. On Monday, all sectors closed higher, led by Consumer Discretionary, Materials, and Information Technology. It was a broad-based gain.

The Analyst View: Looking for Opportunities in the Stress

So, how are the pros navigating this mix of geopolitical tension and market volatility? The team at LPL Financial is maintaining a tactical neutral stance on equities. They see a landscape defined by "accelerating AI-related disruption" on one side and heightened geopolitical risk on the other.

Interestingly, despite the conflict and spiking oil prices, LPL's Strategic Tactical Asset Allocation Committee is encouraged by the stock market's "resilient track record during geopolitical crises." Their playbook isn't to retreat but to look for opportunities to "add equities at lower levels" during short-term disruptions.

On the economy, LPL highlights what they call a "natural credit cycle." Rising interest rates, they argue, are starting to "discipline the market, force selectivity, and reset valuations." While they see "liquidity mismatches" and "optimistic underwriting assumptions" in areas like private credit, they don't forecast a systemic collapse. A key point: "overall corporate debt-to-GDP levels have actually come down in recent years."

In their view, the current stresses represent a healthy market repricing, not a broad unwind. They summed it up with a classic Warren Buffett-adjacent quote: "when the tide goes out, you see who has been swimming naked."

What's on the Economic Calendar

Tuesday brings a few data points for investors to digest:

• 8:30 a.m. ET: Revised U.S. productivity figures for the fourth quarter.
• 9:45 a.m. ET: The flash readings for March's S&P U.S. Services and Manufacturing PMI.
• 6:30 p.m. ET: Federal Reserve Governor Michael Barr is scheduled to speak.

Around the Markets: Oil Up, Bitcoin Holds

In other asset classes, the action was mixed. Crude oil futures, sensitive to Middle East tensions, were up 2.05% to around $89.94 per barrel. Gold, often a safe-haven play, dipped slightly, with the spot price down 0.21% to about $4,397.60 an ounce. The U.S. Dollar Index was a bit stronger, up 0.26%.

In crypto, Bitcoin (BTC) was trading 3.57% higher at $70,908.29.

Globally, equity markets were mostly positive. Major indices in Asia, including Japan's Nikkei and Hong Kong's Hang Seng, closed higher. European markets were also trading in the green early in their session.