So, will the stock market open up or down on Wednesday? If you ask the crowd on the prediction market Polymarket, the answer is leaning toward "up." About 62% of traders there are betting the S&P 500 will open higher, versus roughly 38% betting "down." They've already put over $20,000 on the line for this particular daily wager.

This comes after a choppy Tuesday where the S&P 500 closed down 0.21% at 6,781.48. The main character in this drama, as usual lately, is oil.

Why Oil Is Still Running the Show

Crude prices have been on a wild ride, surging earlier this week as tensions with Iran threatened shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. That's a big deal—it's a chokepoint for about 20% of the world's oil shipments. Prices dipped on Tuesday, then bounced back, all thanks to a confusing series of events.

First, Energy Secretary Chris Wright posted on social media (in a now-deleted message) that the U.S. Navy had successfully escorted a tanker through the strait. The White House press secretary, Karoline Leavitt, later said that wasn't true. So, the market got a dose of volatility from what might have just been a rumor.

Meanwhile, policymakers are trying to put a lid on things. According to a Wall Street Journal report, the International Energy Agency (IEA) is considering the largest release of strategic oil reserves in history. The goal is to stabilize prices and prevent the oil shock from causing broader economic problems.

The Other Big Thing: Inflation Data

While oil is the headline act, there's another important player waiting in the wings: inflation data. The latest U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) report is due out Wednesday. Investors are watching closely, especially after recent signs of a weakening labor market. The big question is whether the recent spike in oil prices will feed into broader, stickier inflation, which would influence what the Federal Reserve does next.

Reasons for the Bullish Tilt

So why is the crowd leaning up? For starters, oil prices have pulled back from their recent peaks. Markets are digesting the potential for that big reserve release and the possibility that the Middle East situation might not get worse.

There's also some good corporate news adding fuel to the fire. Oracle (ORCL) reported earnings after the close on Tuesday, and it was a beat. The software giant posted earnings per share of $1.79 on revenue of $17.2 billion, sending its stock up as much as 9% in after-hours trading. Its growth in cloud and AI infrastructure is seen as a bellwether for corporate tech spending, so a strong report there helps sentiment.

As of the last check, S&P 500 futures were modestly higher, up 0.21% at 6,801.75, aligning with the Polymarket bet.

A Look at Yesterday's Wild Ride

If you want to see how fickle pre-market sentiment can be, look at what happened with Tuesday's bet. The S&P 500 opened that day just slightly up at 6,796.56. The Polymarket contract for March 10 resolved as "Up" after $652,836 in trading volume.

But here's the fun part: until about an hour before the market opened, the implied odds of an up open were just 1.8%. Then, in a frantic last hour of trading, those odds skyrocketed to over 99% as pre-market sentiment shifted dramatically. It's a good reminder that in the world of prediction markets, the final hour can change everything.