Monday was one of those days that reminds you why they call it a roller coaster. The S&P 500 opened deep in the red, down as much as 1.5% at one point, as oil prices spiked and the VIX fear gauge jumped above 30 for the first time since last April. Then, President Donald Trump stepped to a podium and said the war against Iran was "very complete, pretty much." Cue the dramatic reversal. The index surged to close up 0.83% at 6,795.99.
So, what happens next? The crowd on the Polygon-based prediction market Polymarket (POL) is hedging its bets. As of early trading, the market for whether the S&P 500 will open up or down on Tuesday, March 10, is sitting at a cautious 49% "Down" and 51% "Up," with about $40,712 in volume placed so far.
Why That Number Matters
Monday's closing number hides just how ugly the morning was. The VIX spike was a real signal of panic. But the real story was in the oil pits. Trump's comments triggered an immediate and violent reversal. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude, which had rocketed past $100 per barrel overnight and even touched a breathtaking $119 at its peak, came crashing back down to earth, settling around $81. That's a level last seen before the recent conflict escalated. Brent crude followed suit, pulling back to $84. For context, oil hasn't traded above $100 since 2022, after Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
Adding to the pre-recovery jitters was Friday's jobs report, which stoked fresh fears of stagflation—that nasty combo of high inflation and slowing growth.
The Bull Case
Tuesday brings a couple of potential catalysts that could sway the market. First up, energy ministers from the Group of Seven (G7) nations—Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the U.S.—are holding a virtual meeting to discuss a potential coordinated release of strategic oil reserves. Their finance ministers talked about it Monday but didn't make a decision. A coordinated move could help soothe supply fears and put further pressure on prices.
Wall Street giant BlackRock seems to be in the "this too shall pass" camp. In a client note, they acknowledged the situation is "fluid and the risks are real," but argued the energy shock is "likely to be short-lived," expecting supply disruptions to last weeks, not months.
After the closing bell, tech heavyweight Oracle Corp. (ORCL) will report its fiscal third-quarter results. Its performance and outlook could set the tone for the tech sector.
As of now, the futures market is pointing slightly lower. S&P 500 futures are trading at 6,787.25, down 14.25 points, or 0.21%.
How The Previous Bet Played Out: For the record, the Polymarket crowd nailed Monday's call. The S&P 500 opened at 6,699.80, rattled by oil's overnight surge, so "Down" resolved correctly. That bet saw $268,511 in traded volume. The crowd was right, even though the index staged that incredible intraday comeback to close well above its open.
