Here's some good news for people with Crohn's disease, and potentially for AbbVie Inc. (ABBV) shareholders too. The pharmaceutical giant just dropped positive results from a late-stage study of its drug Skyrizi, showing it helped more than half of patients reach a state of remission.
Specifically, in the Phase 3 AFFIRM trial, 55% of patients treated with Skyrizi (the generic name is risankizumab) achieved clinical remission at the 12-week mark. That's a pretty stark difference from the 30% who hit that goal in the placebo group. The drug also showed a strong effect on reducing visible intestinal inflammation, with 44% of patients seeing an endoscopic response versus just 14% on placebo.
What makes these numbers more impressive is the patient population: this wasn't an easy crowd. About 65% of the participants had already failed two or more advanced therapies, meaning Skyrizi was working in patients who are typically harder to treat. For a chronic condition that causes persistent diarrhea and abdominal pain due to inflammation in the gut, a new effective option is always welcome.
But this isn't just a medical story; it's a business one. The results are landing right in the middle of a competitive showdown in the inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) market.
Analysts at William Blair flagged the news as "strategically important for Skyrizi's competitive positioning against Johnson & Johnson's (JNJ) Tremfya." Here's the battlefield: both drugs are part of a class called IL-23 inhibitors, which are becoming big players in treating conditions like Crohn's and ulcerative colitis. The competition often comes down to convenience—how easy is it for a patient to get their medicine?
Right now, Skyrizi's regimen for Crohn's involves an intravenous (IV) infusion for the initial "induction" phase, followed by subcutaneous (subq) injections for maintenance. Johnson & Johnson's Tremfya, however, uses subq injections for both induction and maintenance across its IBD indications. That's one less trip to an infusion center, which some analysts think has been giving Tremfya a market share edge.
"With the positive AFFIRM results, AbbVie now has the opportunity to pursue a fully subcutaneous Skyrizi induction regimen in CD, narrowing the convenience gap versus Tremfya," William Blair analyst Matt Phipps noted. In other words, this data could be the ticket for AbbVie to simplify Skyrizi's dosing and make it a more direct, head-to-head competitor on patient convenience.
Despite that perceived gap, AbbVie's management has said Skyrizi is holding its own, with a capture rate of about 75% in the frontline IBD setting when it's in the consideration set. William Blair expects the drug to remain a key growth driver and a strong competitor within its class.
So, what does the market think of all this? Let's look at the stock. On a technical basis, AbbVie shares are trading above their key moving averages—4.5% above the 20-day and 7.2% above the 100-day—which generally points to a healthy upward trend. The stock is much closer to its 52-week high than its low, reflecting solid investor confidence over the past year.
The shorter-term momentum picture is a bit mixed, though. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is sitting at a neutral 44.45, suggesting the stock isn't overbought or oversold. Meanwhile, the MACD indicator is slightly below its signal line, hinting at some near-term bearish pressure. The takeaway? The long-term trend looks good, but there might be some bumps in the road ahead.
Key technical levels to watch are resistance around $244.50 and support near $220.00.
The analyst community remains firmly in the bull camp. The consensus rating is a Buy, with an average price target of $241.24. Recent moves have been optimistic: RBC Capital initiated coverage with an Outperform rating and a $260 target in late February, Barclays started with an Overweight and a $275 target, and Piper Sandler raised its target to a street-high $299 while keeping its Overweight rating.
When this news hit the wires, AbbVie shares were up a modest 0.32% at $232.82. In a broader market that was slightly down for the day, holding steady on significant clinical news might be seen as a quiet vote of confidence. The real test will be how this data translates into a potential new, more convenient dosing option—and whether that can help Skyrizi gain even more ground in its race with Tremfya.
