So, TotalEnergies SE (TTE) shares are having a good day. The stock popped on Thursday after the company basically said, "Hey, our first quarter looks pretty solid." This is the kind of news that gets investors excited—a preview of strong earnings, even when there are some obvious headwinds.
The broader energy sector was up too, which makes sense. When there's tension in the Middle East and traffic through the Strait of Hormuz gets a little tricky, crude prices tend to go up. That's just how the market works.
Production: Growing, But With a Catch
Here's the interesting part: TotalEnergies expects its hydrocarbon production to exceed its annual organic growth target of 3%. That's driven by new projects coming online, like Lapa SW and Mabruk. But—and there's always a but—output took a hit. The company lost about 100,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day in the Middle East during the quarter. So, overall, production should be roughly stable compared to the last quarter of 2025. It's like taking one step forward and a half-step back.
Upstream: Riding the Price Wave
The exploration and production segment, the upstream part of the business, is expected to post a sharp increase in results. Why? Higher average liquids prices, up $12.4 per barrel. Some of that is due to price lag effects in the UAE, but it's still a nice boost. New projects are also chipping in to support performance. When oil prices are up, the folks who pull it out of the ground tend to do well.
LNG: The Growth Engine
This is where things get really promising. TotalEnergies said its integrated LNG segment should deliver significantly higher earnings and cash flow. LNG output is up about 10%, and strong trading activity amid all the market volatility is expected to support results. In a world that's still figuring out its energy mix, LNG is a big deal, and TotalEnergies is positioned to benefit.
Integrated Power: Steady as She Goes
The integrated power segment is expected to deliver results broadly in line with the first quarter of 2025. The company forecasts about $500 million in results and $600 million in cash flow. Nothing flashy here, but consistency is valuable. Also, there were no asset farm-downs this quarter, unlike in the fourth quarter of 2025.
Downstream: Refining the Recovery
Downstream performance is expected to improve. Refinery utilization is projected to exceed 90%, thanks to a full operational recovery. Crude and product trading was strong in March, which helps. Meanwhile, marketing and services results are expected to remain broadly in line with the first quarter of 2025, mostly due to seasonality. So, the refining and trading side of the house is doing its part.
Earnings & Analyst Outlook: The Numbers Game
Mark your calendars: TotalEnergies is set to report earnings on April 29, 2026. Here's what the analysts are looking at:
- EPS Estimate: $2.01 (Up from $1.83 YoY)
- Revenue Estimate: $45.60 Billion (Down from $52.25 Billion YoY)
- Valuation: P/E of 15.1x (Suggests fair valuation relative to peers)
The stock carries a Hold rating with an average price target of $78.33. Recent analyst moves include:
- Piper Sandler: Neutral (Raises Target to $92.00) (March 12)
- JP Morgan: Upgraded to Overweight (March 2)
- Freedom Broker: Downgraded to Sell (Maintains Target to $73.00) (February 13)
So, analysts are a bit mixed, but the market seems to like what it's hearing. TotalEnergies shares were up 4.38% at $90.87 on Thursday, according to market data.
