So here's the thing about PayPal Holdings, Inc. (PYPL) right now: it's getting sued by investors who feel misled, it just fired its CEO, and it had to scrap its long-term growth targets. Not exactly a banner quarter. But tucked inside all that corporate drama, its Venmo business is actually doing some interesting stuff with rewards and merchant expansion. Let's unpack what's going on.

Stock Drop And Scrapped Outlook

The stock took a nosedive, falling 20.31% on February 3, 2026, from $52.33 to $41.70. That's the kind of drop that gets lawyers' attention. And it did. The trigger was the company revealing some serious operational and deployment issues and, crucially, withdrawing its financial targets for 2027. If you're an investor who bought shares based on those sunny projections, you're probably not happy. The deadline for lead plaintiffs in the securities lawsuits is April 20, 2026.

Here's the gap that's causing the trouble. Back in February 2025, at an Analyst/Investor Day, PayPal was painting a rosy picture. It projected 8% to 10% total payment volume growth by 2027, along with 7% to 9% transaction-margin growth and low-teens earnings-per-share expansion. Fast forward to February 2026, and the company reported results that basically said, "Never mind." They cited weaker performance in their Branded Checkout business, operational challenges, competitive pressures, and macroeconomic headwinds. Oh, and they also announced the termination of CEO James Alexander Chriss. So, not great.

Venmo Expands Rewards Offering

Now, for a bit of brighter news from within the PayPal empire. Venmo, the peer-to-peer app everyone uses to split brunch, is trying to become more than that. It expanded its Stash rewards program, which now lets users earn up to 5% cash back on everyday Venmo purchases at select merchants. The program includes Venmo checkout transactions within specific reward bundles, with a monthly cash-back cap of $100.

Venmo is also getting more places to spend that money. It's expanding its merchant network, adding big names like Sephora, Ulta, Taco Bell, and Pizza Hut. According to the company, its debit card and checkout products are seeing double-digit growth in transaction volume and monthly active accounts.

"Venmo has always been where money moves between people, and now it is where millions choose to spend," said Alexis Sowa, General Manager of Venmo at PayPal. It's a clear push to evolve from a social payments app into a broader spending and money-movement platform.

PYPL Technical Analysis

Let's look at the charts. PayPal is currently trading within its 52-week range of $79.50 to $38.46. The technical picture is a bit mixed. The stock is trading 6.4% above its 20-day simple moving average (SMA), which suggests some short-term upward momentum. However, it's 6.4% below its 100-day SMA and, more notably, 20.4% below its 200-day SMA. That last bit points to a bearish long-term trend.

The relative strength index (RSI) is at 63.75, which is considered neutral territory—the stock isn't overbought or oversold right now.

• Key Resistance: $51.67 — This is a level where selling pressure might kick in if the stock tries to climb higher.
• Key Support: $43.50 — This is a critical level buyers will want to defend to prevent further declines.

PYPL Upcoming Earnings

The next big moment for PayPal investors is the confirmed earnings report on May 5, 2026. This will be a major catalyst to watch.

• EPS Estimate: $1.28 (This is down from a previous estimate of $1.33)
• Revenue Estimate: $8.09 Billion (Up from $7.79 Billion)
• Valuation: The stock trades at a P/E of 9.2x, which some might see as a value opportunity given the company's scale.

Analyst Consensus & Recent Actions: The overall analyst rating sits at Hold with an average price target of $67.88. Recent moves show a cautious stance:

• Mizuho: Downgraded to Neutral and lowered its price target to $50.00 (April 16)
• Citigroup: Maintained a Neutral rating but raised its target to $48.00 (April 8)
• Loop Capital: Initiated coverage with a Hold rating and a $46.00 target (March 31)

PYPL Price Action: On Thursday, PayPal Holdings shares were up a slight 0.20% at $49.67.