It was a rough start to the week for U.S. stocks. Futures pointed sharply lower on Monday, extending losses from Friday as investors grappled with a significant escalation in Middle East tensions. The major indices were all in the red, setting the stage for what could be a volatile trading session.
The weekend brought dramatic news: Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed in strikes carried out by Israel and the U.S. Adding to the uncertainty, former President Donald Trump suggested the military campaign, dubbed "Operation Epic Furry," could continue for "four to five weeks" if necessary. Markets, which famously dislike uncertainty, reacted accordingly.
Just how pessimistic were traders feeling? Over on the prediction market Polymarket, the contract betting on whether the S&P 500 would open higher on March 2 saw its probability crash to a mere 10%. That's a 40-percentage-point drop from prior levels, with over $1.07 million in volume pouring into the bet against stocks. When people are putting real money on a down open, it's worth paying attention.
In the bond market, the 10-year Treasury yield was at 3.97%, with the two-year at 3.42%. Meanwhile, the CME Group's FedWatch tool shows markets are almost certain (95.4% likelihood) that the Federal Reserve will leave interest rates unchanged at its March meeting. For now, the focus is squarely on geopolitics, not monetary policy.
| Index | Performance (+/-) |
| Dow Jones | -1.15% |
| S&P 500 | -1.12% |
| Nasdaq 100 | -1.51% |
| Russell 2000 | -1.36% |
The ETF proxies were feeling the pain too. The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) was down 0.93% at $679.64 in premarket trading, while the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (QQQ), which tracks the Nasdaq 100, declined 1.30% to $599.41.
Stocks In Focus: Big Swings on News
Against this gloomy macro backdrop, several individual stocks were making huge moves on their own specific news.
AMTD Digital
AMTD Digital Inc. ADR (HKD) surged 20% in the premarket after reporting a year-over-year increase in its fiscal year 2025 revenue. The stock has shown a weaker long-term price trend but a stronger trend in the medium and short term, according to market data.
Aardvark Therapeutics
It was a brutal morning for Aardvark Therapeutics Inc. (AARD). The stock plunged 53.56% after the company announced it voluntarily paused its Phase 3 "Hunger Elimination or Reduction Objective" trial. Market data indicates AARD maintains a weak price trend over the short and medium term but a stronger trend in the long term.
Avalon Globocare
Avalon Globocare Corp. (ALBT) tumbled 22.82% as it announced the closing of a private placement of up to $9.75 million, priced at-the-market under Nasdaq rules. The stock shows a strong price trend in the short term but a weaker trend in the medium and long term.
LI Bang International Corporation
LI Bang International Corporation Inc. (LBGJ) declined 24.85% after announcing its wholly-owned subsidiary will acquire a 51% stake in food distributor Yufengyuan. The stock maintains a strong price trend over the short and medium terms but a weak trend in the long term.
MongoDB
MongoDB Inc. (MDB) dropped 2.27% ahead of its earnings report after the closing bell. Analysts expect earnings of $1.45 per share on revenue of $667.15 million. The stock shows a weak price trend over the short and medium terms but a strong trend in the long term.
Looking Back: Friday's Session
Friday's trading set the stage for this week's anxiety. Consumer staples, health care, and energy stocks were the only gainers in the S&P 500, while information technology and financials finished lower.
| Index | Performance (+/-) | Value |
| Dow Jones | -1.05% | 48,977.92 |
| S&P 500 | -0.43% | 6,878.88 |
| Nasdaq Composite | -0.92% | 22,668.21 |
| Russell 2000 | -1.68% | 2,632.36 |
Analyst Insights: A "New Stagflationary Wind"
Prominent analyst Mohamed El-Erian's latest outlook paints a concerning picture. He describes a global economy facing a "new stagflationary wind" driven by intensifying geopolitical shocks and stubborn domestic data.
Analyzing the fallout from military escalations in the Middle East and hot Producer Price Index (PPI) prints, El-Erian warns that the "last mile" of the inflation fight remains arduous. He points to January's core PPI jumping 0.8%—well above forecasts.
For the U.S. stock market, El-Erian anticipates a period defined by three themes: volatility, dispersion, and fragmentation. He notes that while the economy has been resilient, a "supply chain double hit" from rising insurance premiums and maritime rerouting will create logistical friction. This environment will likely widen the gap between market "winners and losers" as global trade fractures.
"The path for central banks becomes even trickier," El-Erian observes, as energy costs rise and growth faces headwinds. With high-profile labor cuts and private credit anxieties surfacing, he suggests the market must brace for "sharp and sudden news-driven price swings" in an increasingly uncertain landscape.
The Week Ahead: Economic Data Calendar
Investors have a full slate of economic data and Fed speeches to digest this week:
- Monday: Final S&P U.S. manufacturing PMI for February (9:45 a.m. ET), ISM manufacturing data and auto sales figures (10:00 a.m. ET).
- Tuesday: Speeches from New York Fed President John Williams (9:55 a.m. ET), Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid (10:10 a.m. ET), and Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari (11:45 a.m. ET).
- Wednesday: ADP employment data for February (8:15 a.m. ET), final S&P U.S. services PMI (9:45 a.m. ET), ISM services data (10:00 a.m. ET), and the Fed's Beige Book (2:00 p.m. ET).
- Thursday: Initial jobless claims, Q4 productivity report, and January import price index data (all 8:30 a.m. ET). Speeches from Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman (1:15 p.m. ET) and Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee (7:00 p.m. ET).
- Friday: The major February U.S. employment report, including unemployment rate and hourly wages data (8:30 a.m. ET). Speeches from San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly (10:15 a.m. ET) and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack (1:30 p.m. ET).
Commodities, Crypto, and Global Markets
The flight to safety and supply concerns were evident in other markets. Crude oil futures were trading 7.71% higher in early New York session, hovering around $72.19 per barrel.
Gold, the classic safe haven, rose 2.22% to around $5,395.00 per ounce. Its last record high stood at $5,595.46. The U.S. Dollar Index was 0.66% higher at the 98.2480 level.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin was trading 0.10% lower at $66,306.44 per coin over the last 24 hours.
Asian markets closed mixed on Monday. China's CSI 300 and Australia's ASX 200 indices rose, while Japan's Nikkei 225, Hong Kong's Hang Seng, South Korea's Kospi, and India's Nifty 50 fell. European markets were mostly lower in early trade.
