So here's the thing about Rocket Lab Rocket Lab Corp. (RKLB) right now: the company is doing pretty well by most financial measures, but investors are acting like they just heard some bad news. And technically, they did—it's just that the bad news is about something that won't happen for a while.
The stock continued its slide into Monday, extending losses from last week's earnings report. On paper, the report looked good: Rocket Lab posted fourth-quarter revenue of $179.65 million, beating the $178.47 million consensus estimate. They lost nine cents per share, which was actually better than the expected 10-cent loss. So why the sell-off?
Because sometimes what you don't get matters more than what you do get. In this case, what Rocket Lab isn't getting—at least not on time—is its Neutron rocket launch. The company announced that the first Neutron launch has been pushed to the fourth quarter of fiscal 2026 from the first quarter. The delay came after a third-party manufacturing defect caused a Stage 1 tank rupture. Management tried to downplay the financial impact, but investors clearly weren't having it. When you're in the rocket business, delays tend to get more attention than quarterly beats.
Meanwhile, Back at the Launchpad
While everyone was fretting about Neutron, Rocket Lab was quietly doing what it does best: launching things successfully. On Friday, the company successfully launched its latest hypersonic test mission for the Department of Defense's Defense Innovation Unit (DIU). This marked its second such mission in three months and the seventh flight of its HASTE vehicle.
The mission, with the wonderfully Australian-sounding name "That's Not A Knife," lifted off February 27 from Launch Complex 2 at the Mid-Atlantic Regional Spaceport in Virginia. It deployed Hypersonix's scramjet-powered DART AE aircraft into a suborbital hypersonic flight environment at several times the speed of sound.
Here's the impressive part: Rocket Lab maintains a 100% success rate across all HASTE launches since the platform's debut less than two years ago. The company said the mission supports advancing hypersonic technology for the United States and its allies. This was Rocket Lab's third launch of 2026 and its 82nd overall.
What the Charts Are Saying
If you're looking at the technicals, the picture is mixed. The stock is currently trading 2.5% below its 20-day simple moving average and 5.0% below its 100-day SMA, which suggests some short-term weakness. But zoom out a bit, and you see that over the past 12 months, shares have increased significantly—they're closer to their 52-week highs than lows.
The RSI is sitting right at 50.00, which is neutral territory—neither overbought nor oversold. Meanwhile, the MACD is at 0.10, below its signal line at 0.15, suggesting a slight bearish pressure. So you've got neutral momentum from one indicator and slightly bearish from another. The technical takeaway? Mixed signals.
- Key Resistance: $75.00
- Key Support: $65.00
What Comes Next
The next big date on the calendar is May 7, 2026, when Rocket Lab reports earnings again. Here's what analysts are expecting:
- EPS Estimate: Loss of 9 cents (up from Loss of 12 cents)
- Revenue Estimate: $188.54 million (up from $122.57 million)
As for what the professionals think, the stock carries a Buy rating with an average price target of $66.38. Recent analyst moves tell an interesting story:
- Cantor Fitzgerald: Overweight (Raises Target to $85.00) (Feb. 27)
- Citizens: Market Perform (Feb. 27)
- Goldman Sachs: Neutral (Raises Target to $69.00) (Jan. 20)
Notice that even the analysts who aren't super bullish are still raising their price targets. That suggests they see value here, even with the Neutron delay.
As for Monday's action, Rocket Lab shares were down 3.33% at $66.80 during premarket trading, according to market data. The market seems to be saying: "Nice quarter, but we were really counting on that rocket."
