So here's the thing about foreign policy: sometimes it's like watching a pendulum swing, and according to former national security adviser John Bolton, the pendulum on Iran has taken a wild arc. Bolton says President Donald Trump's approach to Iran now reflects a shift toward regime change—a move that could spark instability, bloodshed, and some serious global economic disruption.
In a recent interview shared on social media, Bolton put it bluntly: "Trump can swing wildly on a given issue in the course of a day. He's obviously swung from his position in the first term to regime change. He could swing back." That's the kind of volatility that keeps diplomats up at night. Bolton argued that Trump has "swung all the way" from his earlier stance and warned that, depending on circumstances, he might just swing right back again.
He described the recent strikes as the "most consequential decision" of Trump's presidency but cautioned that the administration may not have fully thought through what comes next. Creating a power vacuum, as the thinking goes, isn't exactly a tidy process. Bolton warned that if Iran's leadership weakens, internal factional struggles could erupt. "There could be a lot of turmoil, a lot of bloodshed," he said, adding that fractures within Iran's political and military structure could prompt defections as various groups try to align themselves with whoever seems to be winning.
And then there's the oil. Always with the oil. Bolton raised specific concerns about the strategic Strait of Hormuz, that narrow waterway through which roughly 20% of the global oil supply flows every single day. He suggested Iran could attempt disruptions—think mining operations or naval actions—which might trigger temporary shipping pauses and spikes in insurance premiums. Because nothing says "global market panic" like a blocked chokepoint for one-fifth of the world's oil.
Meanwhile, President Trump has warned Iran against retaliation after U.S.-Israeli strikes that killed Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Trump threatened unprecedented force if Tehran responds. The operation targeted Iranian leadership and military sites with the stated goal of weakening its nuclear and missile capabilities, which in turn triggered missile launches toward Israel and put the entire Gulf region on high alert.
On Saturday, oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz were temporarily paused amid fears of wider disruption. This escalation naturally rattled energy markets. Brent crude prices rose to near $73 per barrel, with analysts warning that prices could climb even further if tensions actually disrupt supply. Iran's Revolutionary Guard reported large-scale retaliatory strikes, while regional countries closed airspace as things escalated.
Trump pledged to dismantle Iran's missile infrastructure and said the operation included joint efforts with Israel to neutralize perceived threats. But back home, the strikes sparked a domestic debate in the U.S., with lawmakers questioning the legality of the action given the absence of congressional approval. Some Republicans and Democrats have urged Congress to reconvene and vote on military authority, raising political scrutiny over executive power and potentially testing support within Trump's own party as tensions continue to unfold.
So, to recap: a former adviser warns of policy whiplash and potential chaos, a key oil passageway hangs in the balance, markets are jittery, and Washington is arguing about who gets to decide when we go to war. Just another week in global affairs.
