Here's a political puzzle for you: what happens when the stock market is hitting record highs, but voters are still worried about the cost of living? For President Donald Trump, the answer might be a new record-high disapproval rating.

A fresh Emerson College poll, taken just before the recent State of the Union address, shows Trump's approval rating holding steady at 43% for February—the same as January. The steady part ends there. His disapproval rating climbed to 55%, up four points from January's 51%. That's the highest it's been since he took office for his second term last January.

Think of it like this: his approval started this term at a high of 49% last January, dipped to 41% by late 2025, and has been crawling back up to the current 43%. But the disapproval line has been trending the other way, setting a new peak.

One group driving that shift? Hispanic voters. "Hispanics disapprove of the job the president is doing, 58% to 37%, a significant shift after reporting a near-split rating last month (43% approve to 45% disapprove) following the administration's military action in Venezuela," said Spencer Kimball, Executive Director of Emerson College Polling.

What's Actually Bothering Voters?

So why the rising discontent? The poll asked voters what matters most heading into the 2026 midterms. When asked to name the single most important issue, the results were a near-tie: the economy (jobs, inflation, taxes) at 30.3% and "threats to democracy" at 30.1%. Immigration was a distant third at 16.2%, followed by health care at 5.9%.

But the more telling question asked people to rate issues on a scale of 1 to 10, where 10 is "extremely important." Here, pocketbook issues dominated the top of the list:

• Cost of Living: 8.2
• Health Care Costs: 7.8
• Inflation: 7.6
• Deportation Policy: 7.1
• Health Care Access: 6.9
• Border Security: 6.3

That's the national picture. Drill down by party, and the priorities split predictably. For Democratic voters, health care costs were an even bigger worry, scoring 8.6. Republican voters, meanwhile, rated border security and deportation policy as high priorities—8.3 and 8.2, respectively—far above how Democrats and Independents rated those same issues.

And the crucial bloc of Independent voters? Their top-rated concern was the cost of living, with a mean score of 8.2.

The Stock Market Paradox

This creates a bit of a disconnect. The high voter anxiety over cost of living and inflation is happening while stock market indexes are near all-time highs—a point the White House has frequently highlighted.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average recently cracked 50,000 for the first time ever. The SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA), which tracks the index, is up 1.9% so far this year and has gained 13.3% over the last year.

The broader market tracker, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY), is up 0.4% year-to-date in 2026 and has rallied 17.3% over the past twelve months.

So, you have a strong market on one hand and deeply concerned voters on the other. It suggests that for many Americans, the performance of the Dow or the S&P 500 isn't the same thing as affordability at the grocery store or the doctor's office. And as the midterms approach, that gap between Wall Street highs and Main Street worries might be the thing to watch.