So, Novavax Novavax Inc. (NVAX) made money last quarter. That's good! The biotech company reported a fourth-quarter profit of 11 cents per share, flipping from a loss of 51 cents a year ago. Revenue jumped 67% year-over-year to $147 million. Normally, that's the kind of news that gets investors excited.

But here's the thing about the stock market: it's always looking ahead. And what Novavax sees for 2026 seems to have given some investors pause. The company guided for adjusted total revenue next year to land between $230 million and $270 million. The problem? Wall Street analysts were expecting about $381.22 million. That's a pretty big gap. It's like acing a test but then telling your parents your grade for the whole class might be lower than they hoped.

This softer outlook seems to be the main driver behind the stock's drop on Friday, down over 11% to around $9.93. It's also possible some traders are simply taking profits after the stock rallied on the initial earnings news Thursday. Adding a layer of intrigue is the stock's substantial short interest, sitting at 31.41% of its float. That means a lot of people are betting the stock will go down, which can amplify price moves in either direction.

The future revenue forecast overshadowed other positive updates. Novavax noted it hit key milestones under its agreement with Sanofi SA (SNY) and is making progress on new partnerships. The company also laid out its expected spending, projecting Non-GAAP R&D and SG&A expenses of $325 million in 2026, $225 million in 2027, and $200 million or less by 2028.

Looking at the charts, the picture is a bit mixed, which fits the overall story. Despite the Friday sell-off, Novavax is still trading above its key short- and medium-term trend lines—8.4% above its 20-day simple moving average and 9.2% above its 100-day average. That suggests some underlying strength. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 44.45, which is smack in the middle of neutral territory. It tells us the stock isn't overbought or oversold right now; it's just... there. Key technical levels to watch are resistance at $11.50 and support at $9.00.

What do the pros think? The analyst consensus rating on Novavax is a Hold, with an average price target of $32.62—a figure that looks quite optimistic compared to the current price. Recently, HC Wainwright & Co. maintained a Buy rating and actually raised its price target to $16.00 on February 27.

So, where does that leave us? Novavax delivered a solid quarterly report card but gave a cautious forecast for the year after next. The market reacted by selling the stock, perhaps focusing more on the future guidance than the past profit. With a neutral technical setup and analysts still somewhat divided, investors are left to decide if this is a temporary setback or a sign of tougher times ahead.