So here's a fun government contracting dispute. The Department of War, led by Secretary Pete Hegseth, wants something from AI startup Anthropic, led by CEO Dario Amodei. Anthropic, maker of the Claude AI, is saying no. And not just "no," but a "we cannot in good conscience do this" kind of no.

The stakes? The department has reportedly threatened to cut off Claude from U.S. government use entirely, slap it with a "supply chain risk" label, and potentially invoke the Defense Production Act to force the issue. Hegseth has apparently set a deadline: accept new contract language allowing for unrestricted use of Claude by this Friday, or risk losing the government contract altogether.

It's the kind of bureaucratic showdown that usually plays out in quiet meeting rooms. But this one has a public betting window.

The Market's Take: Probably No Ban

Over on the prediction platform Polymarket (POL), which runs on the Polygon blockchain and uses the USDC (USDC) stablecoin, there's an active contract asking: "Will Pete Hegseth ban Claude by March 31?"

Traders have put over $320,000 on the line. And as of now, the smart money—or at least the betting money—says a ban is unlikely. The "No" option is trading at a 68% probability. The "Yes" option sits at 33%, down from a high of 49% earlier. So the market sentiment has shifted toward Anthropic weathering this storm, at least for now.

Ethereum's Founder Weighs In

The standoff has drawn attention beyond the usual defense tech circles. Ethereum (ETH) co-founder Vitalik Buterin has publicly praised Anthropic for its resistance. His applause centers on the company's reported refusal to allow its technology to be used for mass surveillance and autonomous weapons—presumably the kind of "unrestricted use" the Department of War is seeking.

It's a fascinating collision of tech ethics, government procurement, and now, speculative finance. By Friday, we'll see if the prediction market was right, or if the department decides to make an example out of a prominent AI startup.