Here's a classic market puzzle: a company reports earnings that crush expectations, shows solid growth, and even buys back a bunch of its own stock. And then its share price goes down. Welcome to the curious case of Aurinia Pharmaceuticals (AUPH) on Thursday.
The lupus-focused drugmaker delivered what looked like a knockout fourth quarter. Adjusted earnings came in at 26 cents per share, handily beating the analyst consensus of 22 cents and leaping from just one cent a year ago. Revenue hit $77.1 million, up from $59.9 million and above the Street's forecast of $74.8 million.
The engine behind this growth is Lupkynis, Aurinia's medicine for lupus nephritis. Sales of the drug jumped 29% year-over-year to $74.2 million in the quarter. For the full year 2025, Lupkynis sales grew 25% to $271.3 million, driving total company revenue up 20% to $283.1 million.
Net income for the year skyrocketed to $287.2 million. But here's the first clue to the stock's negative reaction: that huge profit number was "helped by a large income-tax benefit," as the company put it. It's a one-time accounting boost, not pure operational profit. Still, the underlying business is clearly growing.
Management felt confident enough in its financial position to put cash to work, repurchasing 12.2 million shares for $98.2 million during the year. They ended 2025 with a healthy war chest of $398 million in cash, equivalents, and investments.
So, with all that good news, why did the stock drop? The answer usually lies in the future, not the past. Aurinia provided its outlook for 2026, and that's where the enthusiasm seemed to hit a speed bump.
The company guided to total revenue between $315 million and $325 million. That implies year-over-year growth of 11% to 15%, which is nothing to sneeze at. The problem is that it came in "slightly below" Wall Street's consensus expectation, which was roughly $327 million. For Lupkynis specifically, the company expects net product sales of $305 million to $315 million.
In the world of stock trading, especially for growth-focused biotechs, beating last quarter's numbers is good, but missing next year's target is often considered a sin. Investors appeared to weigh the conservative top-line guidance and the one-time nature of the tax benefit more heavily than the strong double-digit sales growth they just reported.
CEO Peter Greenleaf highlighted the company's ongoing priorities, saying Aurinia aims "to drive further Lupkynis adoption and advance autoimmune candidate aritinercept, now entering additional clinical studies in 2026."
From a chart perspective, Aurinia has been on quite a ride. Over the past year, it traded in a range from $7.20 to $16.37. The stock broke out in mid-2025 and rallied into the mid-teens, peaking near that $16.37 high in late 2025. Since then, it has pulled back as we've moved into early 2026.
Technical analysts might note that while shorter-term moving averages have flattened, the 200-day simple moving average continues to trend higher. This is often interpreted as a signal that the longer-term uptrend still has underlying support, even if the stock is taking a breather.
On Thursday afternoon, that breather translated into a decline. Aurinia Pharmaceuticals shares were down 3.15% at $13.98 at the time of publication, according to market data.
It's a reminder that in the markets, past performance is celebrated, but future expectations are priced in. When the future looks just a tiny bit less rosy than hoped, even a great quarterly report can leave investors feeling a little bearish.
