Shares of Novavax Inc. (NVAX) shot up more than 21% on Thursday. The reason? The company, which you might remember from the COVID-19 vaccine race, just reported something it hasn't seen in a while: a profit.

For the fourth quarter, Novavax posted earnings of 11 cents per share. That's a notable swing from the loss of 51 cents per share it reported for the same period a year ago. The top line looked good too, with revenue climbing 67% year-over-year to hit $147 million.

So, profit? Check. Big sales growth? Check. Investors cheering? Absolutely. But here's where the story gets a bit more complicated.

The Guidance That Dampened the Party

While celebrating the past, Novavax also laid out its expectations for this year. And that's where the enthusiasm met a bit of cold water. The company said it expects 2026 adjusted total revenue to come in between $230 million and $270 million.

That's not nothing, but Wall Street was expecting quite a bit more. The consensus estimate was sitting at $381.22 million. So, the company's own forecast is about 30-40% lower than what analysts had penciled in. That's a pretty significant gap.

Breaking down that guidance, Novavax expects $35 million to $45 million in sales of its Nuvaxovid product and another $40 million to $50 million in adjusted supply sales, which includes ongoing work with partners like the Serum Institute of India.

Cutting Costs and Making Deals

On the call with investors, the company's leadership sounded optimistic about the path forward, pointing to two main areas: spending less and signing more deals.

Novavax said it beat its cost-cutting targets for 2025 and is getting even more ambitious. It now expects its non-GAAP research & development and sales & administrative expenses (after reimbursements) to drop to $325 million this year, then $225 million in 2027, and $200 million or less by 2028.

"In 2025, we made significant progress on our corporate strategy, marked with the successful achievement of key milestones under our Sanofi agreement, progress towards potential new partnerships, in the form of multiple MTAs signed with other parties enabling experimentation with our Matrix-M adjuvant technology and the advancement of our own R&D efforts," said John Jacobs, President and CEO of Novavax.

He specifically called out the "recently announced Pfizer Matrix-M agreement" as part of a "strong start to 2026," adding that the company looks forward to "commercial and clinical development execution from our partners, advancing our R&D efforts and the potential for more partnerships as we drive vaccine innovation and value creation from our technology."

In other words, the plan is to tighten the belt internally while letting other big pharmaceutical companies license and use Novavax's technology, hoping that brings in steady royalty streams.

What the Charts and Analysts Are Saying

From a technical trading perspective, the stock's big jump puts it 8.4% above its 20-day moving average and 9.2% above its 100-day average, which suggests some short-term strength. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is sitting at 44.45, which is considered a neutral zone—not overbought or oversold. Traders often watch for key levels, and for Novavax, those are seen as resistance around $12.00 and support near $10.50.

Meanwhile, the people paid to have opinions on stocks—analysts—are all over the map. The consensus rating is a Hold, but the average price target is $32.23, which is nearly triple where the stock closed on Thursday. That huge gap between target and reality tells you there's a lot of disagreement about the company's true value.

Recent moves show the split: BTIG maintains a Buy rating with a $19 target, B. Riley Securities also says Buy but lowered its target to $16, and JP Morgan is much more pessimistic with an Underweight rating and a $6 price target.

At the end of the day, Novavax gave investors a pleasant surprise with its quarterly numbers, proving it can turn a profit. But the lower bar it set for this year's revenue is a clear signal that the road ahead still has some bumps. The stock's reaction suggests the profit news was the bigger story for now, but that guidance gap is something to keep an eye on.