So here's a fun twist in the weight-loss drug wars: Eli Lilly and Co. (LLY) shares were down on Thursday even as the company announced that its experimental oral medication just beat Novo Nordisk A/S's (NVO) rival pill in a major clinical trial. Sometimes the market just has other things on its mind.
The Zepbound maker shared detailed results from a study called ACHIEVE-3, which is the first head-to-head Phase 3 trial pitting Lilly's oral GLP-1 drug, orforglipron, against Novo's oral semaglutide. They tested it in 1,698 adults whose type 2 diabetes wasn't well controlled with metformin. And Lilly's pill came out on top.
In the trial, orforglipron outperformed oral semaglutide across all the main goals. The big numbers: a 36 mg dose of orforglipron achieved a 2.2% reduction in A1C (a key measure of blood sugar) after 52 weeks. The 14 mg dose of oral semaglutide managed a 1.4% reduction. On the weight loss front, participants on orforglipron lost an average of 19.7 pounds, or 9.2% of their body weight. That's 73.6% greater weight loss than what the semaglutide group saw.
Think about that for a second. In the race to build a blockbuster oral weight-loss drug—which would be a huge deal for patient convenience—Lilly just posted a pretty convincing win in a direct comparison. The company has already submitted orforglipron for regulatory approval in over 40 countries. For the U.S., a decision on its use for obesity treatment is potentially expected in the second quarter of 2026.
This news comes just days after Novo Nordisk released some less stellar data from its own pipeline. The company said its combination drug CagriSema did not achieve the primary goal in a trial called REDEFINE 4, failing to show it was at least as good as Eli Lilly's injectable tirzepatide on weight loss after 84 weeks. It's a reminder that not every study hits, even for the giants in this space.
Now, back to Lilly's stock moving down on Thursday. The broader market was having a rough day, with the S&P 500 down 1.08% and the Nasdaq slipping 1.80%. So Lilly's drop came alongside that broader weakness. It suggests the positive clinical news might have been drawing some investor interest independently, but it wasn't enough to buck the overall trend.
From a technical standpoint, the stock was trading 5.2% below its 20-day simple moving average and 8.4% below its 100-day average, which points to some short-term softness. Over the past year, shares are still up about 65%, and they're closer to their 52-week highs than lows. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) was sitting right at 50.00, which is neutral—no strong momentum either way. Meanwhile, the MACD indicator was at 0.10, below its signal line at 0.15, hinting at some bearish pressure. So you've got mixed signals: neutral RSI and a bearish MACD. Key resistance sits at $1,100.00, with support around $950.00.
Eli Lilly shares were down 1.97% at $1008.53 at the time of publication on Thursday, according to market data.
