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Nvidia's 'Strongest Quarter Ever' Leaves Analysts Bullish, But Stock Takes a Dip

MarketDash
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Nvidia's Q4 earnings beat expectations and guidance impressed, yet the stock fell Thursday. Analysts remain overwhelmingly positive, raising price targets and calling current valuations 'conservative.'

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So, Nvidia Corp (NVDA) just had what one analyst called "among its strongest [quarters] ever." They beat earnings estimates. They gave guidance that was above what the Street was expecting. And the stock... went down. Welcome to the world of sky-high expectations, where even a stellar report can leave investors wanting more. The stock was trading lower on Thursday, down around 4.5%, after the company reported fourth-quarter financial results after Wednesday's market close.

But if you look past the immediate stock reaction and listen to the people who get paid to analyze this stuff, the picture is overwhelmingly bullish. A parade of analysts came out with notes essentially saying, "Yeah, this is as good as it looks." Price targets are being raised, and words like "conservative" are being thrown around to describe valuations. Let's break down what they're seeing.

The Analyst Chorus: Bullish, With Higher Targets

The consensus from the analyst community post-earnings is a resounding vote of confidence. Rosenblatt analyst Kevin Cassidy maintained a Buy rating and raised the price target from $245 to $300. Needham's Quinn Bolton kept a Buy with a $240 target. Benchmark's Cody Acree reiterated a Buy with a $250 target. KeyBanc's John Vinh maintained an Overweight rating and a $275 target. DA Davidson's Gil Luria reiterated a Buy with a $250 target.

In other words, no one is backing down. The question becomes: why are they so confident, especially when the stock dipped?

Rosenblatt: Management Overcame the Doubts

Kevin Cassidy from Rosenblatt pointed out that Nvidia's management "overcame many concerns investors had throughout the quarter — GPU capacity, TPU competition, available power, memory supply and customer financing." That's a pretty comprehensive list of worries that apparently didn't materialize as problems.

He also highlighted that first-quarter guidance is above consensus and that purchase commitments soared 90% quarter-over-quarter. "We view this as a confident management team," Cassidy said, noting their commentary on the continued ramp for the Blackwell platform and the initial production ramp for the next-generation Vera Rubin platform, expected in the second half of 2026.

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Needham: Hyperscalers and Networking Are Key

Needham's Quinn Bolton focused on the strength in compute and networking. He noted record data center revenue and cited comments from CEO Jensen Huang. "Hyperscalers made up ~50% of data center revenue, while other verticals continue to contribute to growth," Bolton said. "Jensen is confident hyperscaler cash flow will increase in the future to support growing Capex given advancements in compute driving increased token output."

Bolton also said networking opportunities are scaling up and that customer engagement for initial Vera Rubin samples "appears robust," with management expecting "all major cloud model builders" to ultimately deploy the platform.

Benchmark: When 'Strongest Ever' Is the New Normal

Benchmark's Cody Acree provided some crucial context for the stock's reaction. He called the quarter "among its strongest ever on many metrics," but noted that "the Street has largely come to view these types of stellar reports as more the norm, rather than the standout results that they were."

He pointed out that the stock was initially flat after-hours before strengthening later, "highlighting the extreme level of heightened investor expectations already reflected in Nvidia's stock price." In short, the bar was set astronomically high, and even clearing it by a mile can lead to a "sell the news" moment.

Acree also said the company tried to calm fears about hyperscaler spending, citing Nvidia's projection that total industry data center capital expenditure could reach $3 trillion to $4 trillion by 2030. His $250 price target is based on a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 31x and fiscal 2027 EPS estimates of $8.05. He called this a "conservative valuation multiple for a company that is performing exceptionally well fundamentally."

KeyBanc: Guidance Excludes China, Which Is a Plus

John Vinh at KeyBanc highlighted the strength in Blackwell and networking. He made an interesting observation about the company's guidance: it includes no contribution from China. In his view, this "could create upside opportunities and is 'likely better for the stock.'" It sets a baseline that could be exceeded if the situation changes, rather than baking in optimism that might not pan out.

DA Davidson: The Demand Is Just Insatiable

Gil Luria from DA Davidson perhaps summed it up most succinctly: Nvidia has "insatiable demand for compute." He said Q4 results beat expectations and that demand was "well beyond" what was anticipated. "We are simply not seeing demand slowing down for compute for the foreseeable future," Luria said.

The Bottom Line & Stock Price Action

So, here's the situation. Nvidia delivered a knockout quarter and strong guidance. Analysts are tripping over themselves to raise targets and praise the company's execution and future roadmap. Yet, the stock is down. Sometimes that happens when a stock is up over 200% in a year—the expectations machine is hard to satisfy.

As of Thursday, Nvidia stock was down 4.55% to $186.71. It's worth remembering the 52-week trading range is $86.63 to $212.19. Even with the dip, the narrative from analysts isn't about a slowdown; it's about sustained, massive demand and a management team executing flawlessly against a backdrop of immense expectations. Whether the stock catches up to that narrative immediately or takes a breather is the day-to-day market noise. The fundamental story, according to the analysts, remains powerfully intact.

Nvidia's 'Strongest Quarter Ever' Leaves Analysts Bullish, But Stock Takes a Dip

MarketDash
Nvidia Logo On Smartphone
Nvidia's Q4 earnings beat expectations and guidance impressed, yet the stock fell Thursday. Analysts remain overwhelmingly positive, raising price targets and calling current valuations 'conservative.'

Get NVIDIA Alerts

Weekly insights + SMS alerts

So, Nvidia Corp (NVDA) just had what one analyst called "among its strongest [quarters] ever." They beat earnings estimates. They gave guidance that was above what the Street was expecting. And the stock... went down. Welcome to the world of sky-high expectations, where even a stellar report can leave investors wanting more. The stock was trading lower on Thursday, down around 4.5%, after the company reported fourth-quarter financial results after Wednesday's market close.

But if you look past the immediate stock reaction and listen to the people who get paid to analyze this stuff, the picture is overwhelmingly bullish. A parade of analysts came out with notes essentially saying, "Yeah, this is as good as it looks." Price targets are being raised, and words like "conservative" are being thrown around to describe valuations. Let's break down what they're seeing.

The Analyst Chorus: Bullish, With Higher Targets

The consensus from the analyst community post-earnings is a resounding vote of confidence. Rosenblatt analyst Kevin Cassidy maintained a Buy rating and raised the price target from $245 to $300. Needham's Quinn Bolton kept a Buy with a $240 target. Benchmark's Cody Acree reiterated a Buy with a $250 target. KeyBanc's John Vinh maintained an Overweight rating and a $275 target. DA Davidson's Gil Luria reiterated a Buy with a $250 target.

In other words, no one is backing down. The question becomes: why are they so confident, especially when the stock dipped?

Rosenblatt: Management Overcame the Doubts

Kevin Cassidy from Rosenblatt pointed out that Nvidia's management "overcame many concerns investors had throughout the quarter — GPU capacity, TPU competition, available power, memory supply and customer financing." That's a pretty comprehensive list of worries that apparently didn't materialize as problems.

He also highlighted that first-quarter guidance is above consensus and that purchase commitments soared 90% quarter-over-quarter. "We view this as a confident management team," Cassidy said, noting their commentary on the continued ramp for the Blackwell platform and the initial production ramp for the next-generation Vera Rubin platform, expected in the second half of 2026.

Get NVIDIA Alerts

Weekly insights + SMS (optional)

Needham: Hyperscalers and Networking Are Key

Needham's Quinn Bolton focused on the strength in compute and networking. He noted record data center revenue and cited comments from CEO Jensen Huang. "Hyperscalers made up ~50% of data center revenue, while other verticals continue to contribute to growth," Bolton said. "Jensen is confident hyperscaler cash flow will increase in the future to support growing Capex given advancements in compute driving increased token output."

Bolton also said networking opportunities are scaling up and that customer engagement for initial Vera Rubin samples "appears robust," with management expecting "all major cloud model builders" to ultimately deploy the platform.

Benchmark: When 'Strongest Ever' Is the New Normal

Benchmark's Cody Acree provided some crucial context for the stock's reaction. He called the quarter "among its strongest ever on many metrics," but noted that "the Street has largely come to view these types of stellar reports as more the norm, rather than the standout results that they were."

He pointed out that the stock was initially flat after-hours before strengthening later, "highlighting the extreme level of heightened investor expectations already reflected in Nvidia's stock price." In short, the bar was set astronomically high, and even clearing it by a mile can lead to a "sell the news" moment.

Acree also said the company tried to calm fears about hyperscaler spending, citing Nvidia's projection that total industry data center capital expenditure could reach $3 trillion to $4 trillion by 2030. His $250 price target is based on a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 31x and fiscal 2027 EPS estimates of $8.05. He called this a "conservative valuation multiple for a company that is performing exceptionally well fundamentally."

KeyBanc: Guidance Excludes China, Which Is a Plus

John Vinh at KeyBanc highlighted the strength in Blackwell and networking. He made an interesting observation about the company's guidance: it includes no contribution from China. In his view, this "could create upside opportunities and is 'likely better for the stock.'" It sets a baseline that could be exceeded if the situation changes, rather than baking in optimism that might not pan out.

DA Davidson: The Demand Is Just Insatiable

Gil Luria from DA Davidson perhaps summed it up most succinctly: Nvidia has "insatiable demand for compute." He said Q4 results beat expectations and that demand was "well beyond" what was anticipated. "We are simply not seeing demand slowing down for compute for the foreseeable future," Luria said.

The Bottom Line & Stock Price Action

So, here's the situation. Nvidia delivered a knockout quarter and strong guidance. Analysts are tripping over themselves to raise targets and praise the company's execution and future roadmap. Yet, the stock is down. Sometimes that happens when a stock is up over 200% in a year—the expectations machine is hard to satisfy.

As of Thursday, Nvidia stock was down 4.55% to $186.71. It's worth remembering the 52-week trading range is $86.63 to $212.19. Even with the dip, the narrative from analysts isn't about a slowdown; it's about sustained, massive demand and a management team executing flawlessly against a backdrop of immense expectations. Whether the stock catches up to that narrative immediately or takes a breather is the day-to-day market noise. The fundamental story, according to the analysts, remains powerfully intact.