When Rocket Lab Corp (RKLB) reports its fourth-quarter earnings after the bell on Thursday, it's not just another earnings call. It's a check-in on one of the most interesting stories in the new space race. The company, often mentioned in the same breath as SpaceX (private), has been on a roll, consistently beating revenue expectations. The question now is: can it keep the momentum going?
Analysts are expecting the company to post revenue of $178.07 million, according to market data. That's a healthy jump from the $132.39 million it reported in the same quarter last year. If it hits that number, it would be the company's third consecutive record-breaking quarter, topping the $155.1 million it posted in Q3. More impressively, it would mark the seventh straight quarter where Rocket Lab has beaten Wall Street's revenue estimates.
On the bottom line, the story is still about investment and growth. Analysts are forecasting a loss of nine cents per share, which is a slight improvement from the ten-cent loss per share a year ago. The company's own guidance has been pointing toward revenue in the range of $170 million to $180 million, so it's set up to meet or exceed expectations.
What Are the Analysts Saying?
The analyst community has been busy reshuffling their views on Rocket Lab lately, and the opinions are all over the map. It's a classic case of seeing the glass as either half-full of rocket fuel or half-empty.
On the bullish side, Morgan Stanley (MS) made a significant move, upgrading the stock from Equal-Weight to Overweight and boosting its price target from $67 to $105. Bank of America (BAC) Securities maintained its Buy rating and nearly doubled its price target from $60 to $120. Goldman Sachs (GS) is playing it cooler, maintaining a Neutral rating but still raising its target from $47 to $69.
Not everyone is on board, however. KeyBanc Capital Markets downgraded Rocket Lab from Overweight to Sector Weight, essentially taking a step back and removing its price target. It's a reminder that even in a hot sector, not every analyst is convinced the trajectory is sustainable.
Beyond the Numbers: The Launch Pad is Busy
The financials are one thing, but for a rocket company, the real story is written on the launch pad. Management's commentary will likely focus on two things: contracts and countdowns.
Rocket Lab bagged 17 launch contracts for its Electron rocket in the third quarter and hinted it would break its annual launch record in Q4. The earnings report will show if they succeeded and reveal how many new contracts were signed amidst all that activity.
The company has already started 2026 with a bang, completing its 80th and 81st launches just eight days apart in late January. "Two launches in eight days is a strong start to the year that speaks volumes about the demand for Electron and the excellence and dedication of the Rocket Lab team," CEO Peter Beck said after the second launch. He's predicting "an even busier launch year in 2026," so investors will be listening for any guidance on the total launch cadence for the year.
There's also a potentially huge government contract in the works. Rocket Lab is part of the Pentagon's Golden Dome initiative under a program called SHIELD. The earnings call could provide more details on the size and scope of this opportunity, which represents a significant vote of confidence from the U.S. defense establishment.
It hasn't all been smooth sailing, of course. The company will likely address setbacks, like the HASTE launch that was scrubbed on Wednesday. How a company handles these inevitable hiccups is often as telling as celebrating the successes.
