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Salesforce's AI Ambitions Meet Market Skepticism After Mixed Earnings

MarketDash
The software giant beat quarterly estimates but offered guidance that left investors wanting more, sending shares lower as questions about its AI transformation linger.

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So, Salesforce Inc. (CRM) reported earnings after the bell on Wednesday. The numbers themselves looked pretty good. The stock, however, did not. It's one of those classic market moments where beating expectations isn't enough; you have to beat them by the right amount, and you have to say the right things about the future.

Let's start with the scoreboard for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2026. Revenue came in at $11.2 billion, a touch above the consensus estimate of $11.18 billion. That's a 12% increase from a year ago. The profit story was even better: adjusted earnings per share were $3.81, comfortably ahead of the $3.04 analysts were looking for. The company also reported having about $7.33 billion in cash on hand and said its total remaining performance obligations—basically, future revenue it's already contracted for—grew 14% year-over-year to $72.4 billion.

All solid, right? This is where the narrative gets interesting. In his statement, CEO Marc Benioff wasn't just talking about software. He was talking about intelligence. "We've rebuilt Salesforce to become the operating system for the Agentic Enterprise, bringing humans and agents together on one trusted platform," he said. "And the more intelligence moves to where work happens, the more valuable Salesforce becomes." Translation: our future is an AI-powered future, and we're building the platform for it. He even threw out a big, round number for the road, saying the company is "well on our way to $63 billion in revenue in FY30." That's a bold claim from a company that just reported $11.2 billion in a quarter.

The company also made some shareholder-friendly moves. It raised its quarterly dividend to 44 cents per share and, more notably, announced a brand new $50 billion share repurchase program. That's a massive vote of confidence in its own financial engine, effectively saying, "We generate so much cash, we can give a bunch back and still invest heavily in that AI future."

But here's the rub, and likely why the stock was down over 4% in after-hours trading to around $184. The guidance for what comes next felt... fine. Just fine. For the current quarter, Salesforce expects revenue between $11.03 billion and $11.08 billion. The consensus estimate was $10.99 billion. So, it's guiding above, but barely. For adjusted earnings, it sees $3.11 to $3.13 per share versus an estimate of $3. So, again, a beat, but not a blowout.

Looking at the full fiscal year 2027, the story is similar. The revenue guide of $45.8 billion to $46.2 billion brackets the analyst consensus of $46.05 billion. The earnings per share outlook of $13.11 to $13.19 per share is essentially dead-on the $13.12 estimate.

This is the puzzle for investors right now. On one hand, you have a company executing well, throwing off tons of cash, and making a huge, expensive bet that AI will transform its business and drive it to much higher revenues. On the other hand, the immediate roadmap it's providing—the next few quarters—doesn't show a dramatic acceleration from that story. The market was perhaps hoping for a clearer signal that the AI "tailwind" Benioff mentioned is already filling the sails in a major way. Instead, it got a beat-and-raise quarter that was mathematically correct but lacked the inspirational upside that gets growth investors really excited.

So, the stock slides. It's not a crash based on terrible news; it's a recalibration. Investors are weighing the promise of an "Agentic" future against the practical, incremental guidance of the present. They're deciding if $50 billion in buybacks is a sign of strength or a suggestion that the company's best, highest-return investment opportunities might be its own shares. For now, the market's vote, at least in the after-hours session, was a cautious one.

Salesforce's AI Ambitions Meet Market Skepticism After Mixed Earnings

MarketDash
The software giant beat quarterly estimates but offered guidance that left investors wanting more, sending shares lower as questions about its AI transformation linger.

Get Salesforce Alerts

Weekly insights + SMS alerts

So, Salesforce Inc. (CRM) reported earnings after the bell on Wednesday. The numbers themselves looked pretty good. The stock, however, did not. It's one of those classic market moments where beating expectations isn't enough; you have to beat them by the right amount, and you have to say the right things about the future.

Let's start with the scoreboard for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2026. Revenue came in at $11.2 billion, a touch above the consensus estimate of $11.18 billion. That's a 12% increase from a year ago. The profit story was even better: adjusted earnings per share were $3.81, comfortably ahead of the $3.04 analysts were looking for. The company also reported having about $7.33 billion in cash on hand and said its total remaining performance obligations—basically, future revenue it's already contracted for—grew 14% year-over-year to $72.4 billion.

All solid, right? This is where the narrative gets interesting. In his statement, CEO Marc Benioff wasn't just talking about software. He was talking about intelligence. "We've rebuilt Salesforce to become the operating system for the Agentic Enterprise, bringing humans and agents together on one trusted platform," he said. "And the more intelligence moves to where work happens, the more valuable Salesforce becomes." Translation: our future is an AI-powered future, and we're building the platform for it. He even threw out a big, round number for the road, saying the company is "well on our way to $63 billion in revenue in FY30." That's a bold claim from a company that just reported $11.2 billion in a quarter.

The company also made some shareholder-friendly moves. It raised its quarterly dividend to 44 cents per share and, more notably, announced a brand new $50 billion share repurchase program. That's a massive vote of confidence in its own financial engine, effectively saying, "We generate so much cash, we can give a bunch back and still invest heavily in that AI future."

But here's the rub, and likely why the stock was down over 4% in after-hours trading to around $184. The guidance for what comes next felt... fine. Just fine. For the current quarter, Salesforce expects revenue between $11.03 billion and $11.08 billion. The consensus estimate was $10.99 billion. So, it's guiding above, but barely. For adjusted earnings, it sees $3.11 to $3.13 per share versus an estimate of $3. So, again, a beat, but not a blowout.

Looking at the full fiscal year 2027, the story is similar. The revenue guide of $45.8 billion to $46.2 billion brackets the analyst consensus of $46.05 billion. The earnings per share outlook of $13.11 to $13.19 per share is essentially dead-on the $13.12 estimate.

This is the puzzle for investors right now. On one hand, you have a company executing well, throwing off tons of cash, and making a huge, expensive bet that AI will transform its business and drive it to much higher revenues. On the other hand, the immediate roadmap it's providing—the next few quarters—doesn't show a dramatic acceleration from that story. The market was perhaps hoping for a clearer signal that the AI "tailwind" Benioff mentioned is already filling the sails in a major way. Instead, it got a beat-and-raise quarter that was mathematically correct but lacked the inspirational upside that gets growth investors really excited.

So, the stock slides. It's not a crash based on terrible news; it's a recalibration. Investors are weighing the promise of an "Agentic" future against the practical, incremental guidance of the present. They're deciding if $50 billion in buybacks is a sign of strength or a suggestion that the company's best, highest-return investment opportunities might be its own shares. For now, the market's vote, at least in the after-hours session, was a cautious one.