So, the Supreme Court just took a swing at former President Donald Trump's tariff playbook. But here's the thing about trade policy: when you close one door, another one often swings open, sometimes hitting a different set of people. That's exactly what happened here.

The Court's 6-3 ruling knocked out tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, including those controversial "reciprocal" and emergency tariffs on heavyweights like Canada, China, and Mexico. But don't think tariffs are gone. Within hours, Trump responded by slapping a new 10% global tariff under a different law, Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974. By Saturday, he'd cranked it up to the legal maximum of 15%. This surcharge is set to run through July 24, with the potential for more permanent Section 301 tariffs to take its place later if Congress gives the nod.

The net effect, according to Goldman Sachs economist Alec Phillips, is that the increase in the effective tariff rate since the start of 2025 has been trimmed—but only slightly. It's gone from just over 10 percentage points to about 9 percentage points. On the surface, that's a modest adjustment. But dig into the country-level details, and you'll find a dramatic reshuffling of who's paying what.

Think of it like a global game of musical chairs where the music just stopped and the rules changed. Some countries found a better seat; others are now standing in a more expensive corner of the room.

Let's start with the winners—the economies breathing a sigh of relative relief. Mainland China's effective tariff rate takes a notable dive, falling 6.6 percentage points to 14.3%. Mexico's drops 1.7 points to 3.1%, and Canada's declines 1.1 points to 6.7%. The biggest winner appears to be Brazil, with a whopping 10 percentage point reduction down to 2.4%. Other beneficiaries include Indonesia (down 3.3 points to 14.5%), Bangladesh (down 4 points to 15%), Vietnam (down 2.4 points), and South Africa (down 2 points). For these nations, lower effective rates could be a tailwind for export volumes in the coming months, especially as global importers look to rebuild their inventories.

On the other side of the ledger, several major trading partners are now looking at higher tariff rates than they faced before the Supreme Court stepped in. The European Union's effective rate climbs 0.9 percentage points to 10.9%. Japan's increases 0.6 points to 11.7%, and the United Kingdom gets a significant 2.9-point hike to 10.9%. Singapore jumps 2.7 points to 9.3%, Argentina rises 3.5 points to a steep 21.4%, and Australia increases 1.6 points to 5.5%.

As Phillips notes, there's still some fog around the edges: "First, it is not yet clear how trading partners with reciprocal tariffs under 15% would be treated, but we assume that this will mean an increase in the tariff rate, at least in the short run." This uncertainty is the kind of thing that introduces friction and can heighten volatility, not just in physical trade flows but also in the performance of financial instruments tied to specific countries.

Speaking of financial instruments, it's a fascinating time to look at country-specific exchange-traded funds (ETFs). According to market data, some of the top-performing U.S.-listed country ETFs year-to-date hail from nations now navigating this new tariff terrain. The leaders include the iShares MSCI South Korea ETF (EWY) (+45.10%), the iShares MSCI Peru ETF (EPU) (+25.40%), the iShares MSCI Brazil ETF (EWZ) (+24.57%), the iShares MSCI Thailand ETF (THD) (+21.97%), and the iShares MSCI Turkey ETF (TUR) (+21.70%).

To make sense of the shifting landscape, here's a breakdown of how tariffs have changed for key economies after the Supreme Court's ruling:

The bottom line? The Supreme Court's decision didn't end the tariff story; it just wrote a new chapter with a different set of characters facing fortune or friction. For investors and companies with global supply chains, it's time to check the new map and see where your interests now stand.