Sometimes, beating expectations isn't enough. Just ask Workday Inc. (WDAY).
The company, which makes software for human resources and finance departments, reported its fourth-quarter numbers after the bell on Tuesday. On paper, it was a good quarter. Earnings came in at $2.47 per share, beating the Street's estimate of $2.32. Revenue hit $2.53 billion, also topping the consensus of $2.52 billion and up nicely from $2.21 billion a year ago.
So, the stock should have gone up, right? Wrong. Shares fell more than 8% in extended trading, settling around $119.17. The culprit? The future.
Workday told investors to expect first-quarter revenue of about $2.52 billion. Analysts were looking for $2.53 billion. Looking further out, the company projected fiscal 2027 revenue in the range of $10.64 billion to $10.66 billion. Again, that was a bit shy of the $10.72 billion analysts had penciled in.
In the world of high-growth software stocks, guidance is everything. A beat on current numbers is nice, but if you whisper a slightly softer tune about the road ahead, investors will often head for the exits. It's a classic "sell the news" scenario, even when the news seems pretty good.
CEO Aneel Bhusri tried to steer the conversation toward the long game, specifically artificial intelligence. "We built Workday to bring innovation back to the worlds of HR and finance, and AI gives us the chance to do it all again," he said in the earnings release.
He doubled down on the theme, arguing that Workday's position handling sensitive HR and finance data gives it a unique advantage. "We operate at the heart of the global enterprise, where trust and accuracy matter most. That gives Workday a unique opportunity to bring AI directly into the HR and finance workflows our customers rely on every day and to deliver real, measurable value," Bhusri added.
The company's backlog numbers, which signal future subscription revenue, support the idea of a healthy pipeline. The 12-month subscription revenue backlog grew 15.8% year-over-year to $8.83 billion. The total subscription revenue backlog hit $28.1 billion, up 12.2%.
So, you have a company that just delivered strong results, has a growing pile of future business, and is talking up a major technological shift (AI) that could drive its next phase of growth. Yet, the stock is down because next quarter's revenue might be $10 million light compared to expectations. That's the market for you—it can be brutally focused on the next few feet of the track, even when the runner is setting a good pace for the marathon.
For Workday investors, the story now is about whether the AI narrative and solid execution can eventually outweigh the market's disappointment over a guidance miss that, in the grand scheme of a multi-billion dollar business, is relatively small. Sometimes, even a good report needs a perfect forecast to keep the party going.












