When Nvidia Corp (NVDA) reports its fourth-quarter earnings after the market closes on Wednesday, it won't just be another corporate update. It might feel more like the entire tech sector is holding its breath, hoping the AI chip giant can throw it a lifeline.
The recent slide in tech valuations has put extra pressure on this report. An analyst thinks Nvidia is uniquely positioned to provide some much-needed relief.
The Street's Desperate Hope
"The Street is eagerly waiting for good news," Wedbush analyst Dan Ives said in a new investor note. He frames Nvidia's earnings as arriving at a "key, pivotal moment" for technology.
"At a time with tech stocks volatile and greater worries around the AI narrative with the ‘AI Ghost Trade' black cloud over tech stocks … it all comes down to gauging the AI Revolution demand story which starts and ends with Nvidia," Ives said.
He believes the "entire global market" will be watching, not just for the numbers, but for the guidance and tone from the company. "We fully expect the leading supplier of AI chips will comfortably exceed estimates and guide above Street," Ives stated.
His confidence stems from positive data points in the fourth quarter and expectations of healthy spending from other companies on Nvidia's hardware. Ives argues that Wall Street is still underestimating the long-term demand. "We continue to believe Street estimates for Nvidia are being significantly underestimated over the next few years given the global demand story for the AI Revolution in our view with Big Tech capex numbers expected to be north of $650 billion in 2026."
He also notes that adoption is broadening beyond cloud giants to more enterprises and governments, which could help Nvidia maintain its "dominant share position."
Perhaps most importantly for the market's mood, Ives sees a powerful ripple effect: "Nvidia's earnings/guidance and general bullish commentary from Jensen will be a positive catalyst for tech stocks." He quantifies it, suggesting that every $1 spent on Nvidia could represent an $8 to $10 multiplier for the entire technology ecosystem.
Ives expects Nvidia and its CEO, often called the "Godfather of AI," Jensen Huang, to deliver. He maintains an Outperform rating on the stock with a price target of $230.
The Numbers to Beat
So, what exactly does "comfortably exceed" mean? The bar is already high. According to market data, analysts expect Nvidia to report fourth-quarter revenue of $65.64 billion. That's a staggering jump from $39.33 billion in the same quarter last year. The company has beaten revenue estimates for 13 consecutive quarters.
On the bottom line, the consensus calls for earnings per share of $1.50, up from 89 cents per share a year ago. Nvidia has topped EPS estimates for 12 straight quarters. The company's own guidance calls for revenue between $63.70 billion and $66.30 billion.
