President Donald Trump is set to deliver his first State of the Union address of his second term on Tuesday. It's a big speech, and apparently, some people are treating it like a big game. Prediction markets are placing serious bets—millions of dollars' worth—on everything from how long he'll talk to the specific words that will come out of his mouth.
According to data from Kalshi, a federally authorized betting platform, the contract asking "What will Trump say during the State of the Union?" has seen over $5 million in wagers. That's a lot of money riding on presidential vocabulary.
So, what are the smart money bettors predicting? The top word, with a whopping 94% probability, is "Trillion." It makes sense—budgets, spending plans, and big economic numbers are State of the Union staples. Close behind are "250" at 93%, "Olympics / World Cup" at 91%, and perhaps unsurprisingly, "Trump" himself at 90%. The word "Fraud" isn't far off, holding an 89% probability.
In a twist that feels very 2025, the word "Alien" has an 84% probability of being uttered. Given the recent flurry of news and discussion on the topic, bettors clearly think it might make the cut. Meanwhile, a classic Trump epithet, "Fake News," is given only a 50/50 shot by the market.
It's a fascinating, if slightly surreal, snapshot of expectations. The speech will outline the administration's past year and future plans, but for a segment of the financially curious, it's also a high-stakes word game.
