Consumers got a little breathing room at the gas pump in recent weeks. Don't get used to it.
Patrick De Haan, the fuel analyst better known as GasBuddyGuy, is here to pour cold water on the celebration. "It's STILL not over," he said on social media, and he wasn't kidding around.
De Haan, who tracks rising and falling prices at stations across the country, points out a staggering number: Americans have spent $138.8 billion more on gas since March 1, 2026, than they did last year. The culprit? The Iran War, which has sent oil prices spiking and left drivers digging deeper into their wallets.
Sure, prices have come down somewhat from record highs in several states. But relief may not be as generous as consumers are hoping for. Spot prices in Great Lakes states keep climbing, and De Haan flagged the risk on Thursday, Oct. 22: "For now, Michigan, Indiana, and Wisconsin face a risk of further gas price increases, but Ohio does not. Illinois is complicated, but Chicago suburbs at lower risk as well for the moment."
What Would It Take to Bring Prices Down?
If you're waiting for gas prices to tumble, De Haan says it will take a major de-escalation between the United States and Iran, and between Ukraine and Russia. Those two international conflicts have been the main drivers pushing oil prices higher. As for when that might happen, De Haan isn't predicting any time soon that gas or diesel will fall below key levels.
"Diesel prices nationally will not fall below $6/gal prior to the midterms, and gasoline will not fall below $4/gal prior to the midterms – both will remain elevated until there is a clear de-escalation [between] US/Iran and Ukraine/Russia," he tweeted Wednesday, Oct. 21.
Why This Matters Beyond the Pump
Rising gasoline prices have become a major talking point for the 2026 midterm elections. If Democrats can win seats from upset Americans paying more at the pump, the look of Congress in 2027 could change dramatically.
President Donald Trump has promised the price of gas will come down after the Iran escalation is over. But barring a major update, that is unlikely before the election.
Higher gas prices could benefit oil companies as oil barrel prices rise, as well as refineries. Rising gas prices hurt other sectors and could push consumers to cut spending to offset the rise.
The longer gas prices stay high, the more people look for gas savings through wholesale retail membership programs like those from Costco Wholesale (COST) and Sam's Club, a Walmart (WMT) unit.
Costco has reported record numbers for its gas station business where it saves members money at the pump. Walmart recently launched a combo subscription service pairing a Sam's Club membership with a Walmart+ membership, which could be more appealing with the gas savings.
Oil Fund Hits New Highs
On Friday, the United States Oil Fund rose to new 52-week highs of $168.91. The fund is up 145% year-to-date in 2026.
