Here's the thing about Nvidia Corp (NVDA): when it reports earnings, it's not just a quarterly check-in. It's a sector-wide event. The semiconductor giant drops its numbers after the market closes Wednesday, and given its sheer size and role as the undisputed engine of the AI boom, the ripple effects can move entire indexes. So, what's the smart money looking for this time around?

Let's start with the numbers everyone's whispering about. Analysts, using market data, expect Nvidia to post fourth-quarter revenue of $65.64 billion. That's a staggering leap from the $39.33 billion it reported in the same period last year. They're also looking for earnings per share of $1.50, up from 89 cents. For context, Nvidia has a habit of making analysts look conservative; it's beaten revenue estimates for 13 straight quarters and EPS estimates for 12. The company itself has guided for revenue between $63.70 billion and $66.30 billion, so the Street is betting on the high end.

The analyst chorus remains overwhelmingly bullish heading into the print. The consensus rating is a Buy, with a consensus price target of $261.54. But the range is wide—from $195 all the way up to $352—which tells you there's some debate about just how high this can go. Recent notes from major firms highlight both the optimism and the specific catalysts they're watching.

KeyBanc analyst John Vinh, who has an Overweight rating and a $275 target, is expecting a strong beat. "We expect NVDA to report strong results/guidance with F4Q revs of $69B and F1Q rev guide in the range of $74B-$75B," Vinh said. He points to a few key drivers: shipments of the new Blackwell architecture, H200 shipments to China, and ongoing memory shortages. On China, he estimates H200 shipments could represent $3 billion to $3.5 billion in revenue for the quarter, calling it a "meaningful revenue contribution." The continued ramp of Blackwell, he argues, will be crucial for both the quarterly results and future guidance, driven by both unit volume and higher average selling prices.

Then there's the more intriguing, big-picture take from DA Davidson's Gil Luria (Buy rating, $250 target). He suggests that for perhaps the first time in a while, Nvidia's earnings might not be the sole focus of the AI narrative. "The market has picked other AI winners, including Google, Broadcom, memory chips and optical companies," Luria observed. This shift in attention, he argues, might have created a blind spot—and an opportunity—for Nvidia stock.

Here's the core of his thesis, and it's a fascinating one: "While these other companies' expectations are discounting a multi-year AI cycle, we believe that NVDA's share price is discounting a 2026 peak in AI demand." Think about that. The stock of the company that makes the essential shovels for the AI gold rush is priced as if the rush ends in two years. Luria sees no reason Nvidia won't report another robust quarter and maintain its history of 50%+ growth. Why? Because its main customers—Amazon (AMZN), Google (GOOGL), Microsoft (MSFT), and Meta (META)—"have maintained or increased significant capex growth guidance for this year and that easily supports this trajectory." In other words, the people writing the biggest checks are still all-in.

Wedbush analyst Matt Bryson (Outperform, $230 target) is focused on investor sentiment. He fully expects Nvidia to exceed estimates and guide above expectations, given positive data points throughout the quarter. The key items on his watchlist are customer spending patterns, the spending intentions of "Neocloud" builders, and supply chain data. "We see this supply chain certainty as ensuring NVDA continues to hold its dominant share position through 2026," Bryson said.

He draws a parallel to concerns that weighed on the stock in 2025, comparing them to current worries about ASIC competition and data center financing. "We believe the outcome will be the same with the next meaningful newsflow likely positive and NVDA numbers set to continue moving higher," he concluded.

As for the stock itself, Nvidia closed Monday at $191.55, up 0.91% on the day. It's trading in a 52-week range of $86.63 to $212.19, is up 2.71% year-to-date in 2026, and has gained 47% over the last year. It's sitting near its highs, which makes Wednesday's report and guidance all the more critical. The question isn't just whether Nvidia had a good quarter—it almost certainly did. The question is whether the market is still underestimating just how long this AI party can last.