Here's a funny thing about competition: sometimes your rival's bad news can be your good news. Shares of Viking Therapeutics Inc. (VKTX) were up nicely on Monday, and the catalyst seems to be some less-than-stellar data from a giant competitor.
The news came from Novo Nordisk A/S (NVO), which reported results from its REDEFINE 4 Phase 3 trial. The trial was testing CagriSema, a fixed-dose combo of cagrilintide and semaglutide, against Eli Lilly's tirzepatide (sold as Zepbound and Mounjaro). The goal was to show CagriSema was at least as good. It wasn't. Patients on CagriSema lost 20.2% of their body weight over 84 weeks, while those on tirzepatide lost 23.6%. That failure to demonstrate non-inferiority sent Novo Nordisk's stock to a 52-week low.
So why is Viking, a much smaller player, cheering? Because the narrative around which drugs will win the obesity market is still being written, and every data point adds a sentence. William Blair analyst Andy Hsieh noted on Monday that "due to the most optimal efficacy/tolerability balance, the GLP-1/GIP dual agonist class will continue to command market leadership." In plain English, drugs like Lilly's tirzepatide—which targets two hormone pathways—are still seen as the top dogs. The REDEFINE 4 results, he suggested, just add more evidence to that view.
This is where Viking fits in. Its lead candidate, VK2735, is also a dual agonist (targeting GLP-1 and GIP). It's in the same conceptual club as the market leader. Other players like Kailera's riputapatide and Roche Holdings AG's (RHHBY) CT-388 are also in Phase 3, but Viking has a potentially neat trick up its sleeve.
The company is working on both an injectable and an oral pill version of VK2735. The oral formulation is expected to head into Phase 3 trials in the third quarter of 2026. Offering both options could be a real advantage in a market where convenience is king, especially since no other dual or triple agonist is currently available in both forms.
As for the stock itself, the chart is telling a story of conflicted momentum. It's trading above its 20-day simple moving average, which hints at some short-term strength. But it's below its 50-day and 100-day averages, suggesting the longer-term trend might need more convincing. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits at a neutral 40.61, while the MACD indicator is bearish. Traders are watching key resistance at $36.00 and support at $29.50.
Despite the mixed technical picture, Wall Street analysts are largely bullish. The consensus rating is a Buy, with an average price target of $92.44—a hefty premium to where it trades now. Recent moves include Canaccord Genuity raising its target to $107.00 in November and initiating coverage with a Buy and a $106.00 target in late October. JP Morgan, while maintaining an Overweight rating, did lower its target to $75.00 in late October.
Viking Therapeutics shares were up 10.91% at $34.41 at the time of publication on Monday, according to market data.
