Here's a fun thought experiment: what if one policy change could unlock billions of dollars for a company almost instantly? For Nvidia Corp (NVDA), that's not a hypothetical—it's a very real possibility sitting in China.
According to JPMorgan analyst Harlan Sur, every 100,000 H200 GPUs Nvidia ships to China could generate roughly $3 billion in incremental revenue. That's not chump change, even for a company of Nvidia's size. It makes export approvals one of the biggest potential upside catalysts for the stock, which is saying something given how much upside the stock has already seen.
The opportunity exists because the rules have quietly changed. U.S. export policy for Nvidia's H200 shipments to China and Macau is no longer under "automatic denial." Instead, it's subject to case-by-case review. That's bureaucratic language for "the door is now slightly ajar instead of being welded shut." It reopens the possibility of future sales to a massive market that's been largely off-limits.
Billions Waiting On A Green Light
Sur points out that China remains a major source of demand, even while shipments are in limbo. The math is pretty straightforward: 100,000 units equals about $3 billion in revenue. So if approvals start flowing, the financial upside could be immediate and meaningful.
The timing is the big unknown. When will those case-by-case reviews turn into actual shipping orders? Nobody knows for sure. But the demand backdrop is crystal clear. Chinese customers still have a strong appetite for AI compute power. Any easing in export approvals could immediately turn that pent-up demand into real revenue for Nvidia.
Think of it like a tap that's been mostly closed. Even a small turn could let a lot of water—or in this case, cash—flow through.
