Here's a fun thought experiment: what if one policy change could unlock billions of dollars for a company almost instantly? For Nvidia Corp (NVDA), that's not a hypothetical—it's a very real possibility sitting in China.

According to JPMorgan analyst Harlan Sur, every 100,000 H200 GPUs Nvidia ships to China could generate roughly $3 billion in incremental revenue. That's not chump change, even for a company of Nvidia's size. It makes export approvals one of the biggest potential upside catalysts for the stock, which is saying something given how much upside the stock has already seen.

The opportunity exists because the rules have quietly changed. U.S. export policy for Nvidia's H200 shipments to China and Macau is no longer under "automatic denial." Instead, it's subject to case-by-case review. That's bureaucratic language for "the door is now slightly ajar instead of being welded shut." It reopens the possibility of future sales to a massive market that's been largely off-limits.

Billions Waiting On A Green Light

Sur points out that China remains a major source of demand, even while shipments are in limbo. The math is pretty straightforward: 100,000 units equals about $3 billion in revenue. So if approvals start flowing, the financial upside could be immediate and meaningful.

The timing is the big unknown. When will those case-by-case reviews turn into actual shipping orders? Nobody knows for sure. But the demand backdrop is crystal clear. Chinese customers still have a strong appetite for AI compute power. Any easing in export approvals could immediately turn that pent-up demand into real revenue for Nvidia.

Think of it like a tap that's been mostly closed. Even a small turn could let a lot of water—or in this case, cash—flow through.

Playing With House Money

Here's what makes the China situation particularly interesting: Nvidia is already sitting on massive global demand without it. The company has disclosed a backlog exceeding $500 billion. Hyperscalers—the big cloud companies—continue to invest heavily in AI infrastructure. Demand continues to outstrip supply in markets Nvidia can already access.

Sur expects Nvidia to deliver another beat-and-raise quarter, supported by rising shipments of its new Blackwell architecture and strong pricing power. The business is firing on all cylinders even with one hand tied behind its back in China.

That's why China represents more than just another market. It's a potential growth lever that could be layered on top of an already powerful expansion cycle. If export approvals accelerate, it wouldn't just be incremental growth—it would be growth on top of growth.

With billions in potential revenue tied to export decisions, China isn't just a restricted market for Nvidia. It's a wildcard. And if that card gets played right, it could quickly amplify whatever comes next in Nvidia's already remarkable story.