So here's the thing about Nvidia Corp (NVDA) right now: the stock has basically been stuck. For months, it's been hovering around $187 a share, trading sideways since its last earnings report. It's like watching a sports car idling at a red light—you know there's a powerful engine under the hood, but it's not going anywhere at the moment.

But according to JPMorgan analyst Harlan Sur, that engine is still revving. He says there's "little to suggest that NVDA will not (once again) deliver a beat-and-raise." In other words, don't let the flat stock chart fool you. The fundamentals, he argues, are still accelerating. This sets the stage for what could be another quarter where Nvidia beats Wall Street's expectations and then raises its guidance for the future.

Blackwell Ramp and Higher Prices: A Recipe for More Revenue

What's driving this optimism? A lot of it comes down to Nvidia's new Blackwell Ultra platform, which is powering the company's next wave of growth. Here's where it gets interesting: supply chain checks indicate that rack shipments rose to roughly 12,000 units in the January quarter. That's up from about 10,000 in the prior period.

More importantly, Nvidia isn't just shipping more stuff; it's shipping more expensive stuff. The company is now shipping higher-priced GB300 systems, which carry average selling prices that are 20% to 30% higher. Think of it like a car dealership selling more luxury SUVs instead of basic sedans—the revenue per unit goes up significantly.

This combination—selling more units at higher prices—is a classic one-two punch for revenue growth. Sur believes it could push Nvidia's revenue above Wall Street's current estimate of $65.6 billion for the quarter. He even expects Nvidia to guide toward $74 billion to $75 billion next quarter, which would be above the current consensus. That's not a small bump.

The Bigger Story: AI Demand Is Still Running Ahead of Supply

But the volume and pricing story is only part of the equation. The bigger, more fundamental story is demand. Simply put, the hunger for AI compute is still outstripping the world's ability to supply it.

Cloud providers continue to signal that limited AI compute availability is constraining their businesses. This isn't just a niche problem; it reinforces Nvidia's incredibly dominant position in the market. When you're the company that makes the chips everyone needs but can't get enough of, you're in a pretty good spot.

Then there's the backlog. Nvidia's backlog already exceeds $500 billion. Let that number sink in for a second. That's not just wishful thinking or potential demand; that's committed spending from hyperscalers (the giant cloud companies) for AI infrastructure. It underscores the sheer scale of what's being built.

This massive order book provides incredible visibility into future revenue. It suggests that Nvidia's datacenter growth—a huge part of its business—could remain strongly supported well into 2027. That's years of potential runway built on orders that are already in the books.

So, why is the stock stuck? Sur's take is that the sideways move reflects rising expectations, not weakening momentum. The bar has been set incredibly high. When you deliver blowout quarter after blowout quarter, eventually the market starts to price in perfection. Any stumble, or even just meeting expectations, can feel like a disappointment.

But the flip side is also true. Another beat-and-raise quarter—where Nvidia tops estimates and then points to an even brighter future—could quickly reset that narrative. It would be a reminder that the engine is not just idling; it's ready to launch forward again.

For now, the story is one of a company caught between phenomenal business execution and a stock market that's waiting for the next signal. The fundamentals, according to JPMorgan, are screaming "go." The stock chart, for the moment, is just sitting there. The next earnings report will be the test to see which one wins out.