So here's what happens when the Supreme Court tells a president he can't do something: sometimes he just does something else, and loudly complains about why he had to do it in the first place. That's essentially the scene in trade policy right now, after the Court struck down former President Donald Trump's emergency tariff authority, and he promptly turned his attention—and new tariffs—toward Taiwan's semiconductor industry.
The Court's 6-3 ruling found that Trump's import tariffs, imposed under a national-emergency law, violated the 1977 International Emergency Economic Powers Act. That invalidated a bunch of the tariffs he'd set up. Trump's response? A Saturday press conference where he doubled down on a familiar grievance. "Taiwan came [into the chip sector and] they stole our chip business," he said, arguing that Taiwan had pushed aside former U.S. leaders like Intel Corp. (INTC).
This isn't just rhetorical bluster. Taiwan is home to Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd. (TSM), the world's largest contract chipmaker and the dominant producer of the advanced AI chips that power everything from data centers to smartphones. Trump also claimed that Taiwanese companies built factories in Arizona, Texas, and other U.S. states specifically to avoid tariffs, according to a report.
Practically speaking, the ruling meant Trump had to find a new legal path for tariffs. So he did. He immediately imposed a temporary 10% tariff on imports and said his administration would "determine and issue the new and legally permissible tariffs" in the coming months. By the next day, that rate was up to 15%. This creates a weird dynamic with Taiwan, which had earlier this year committed to invest $500 billion in exchange for lower tariffs of 15% (down from 20%). That pledge now sits in a legal gray area, with the goalposts moving on what tariffs are even allowed.
Unsurprisingly, this has caused some concern in Taiwan. The ruling and Trump's comments have political and economic voices there warning that the outcome could seriously reshape Taiwan's negotiating position with Washington. Taichung politician Zhou Yonghong suggested the decision might please China while hurting Taiwan, after the island worked hard to secure a tariff arrangement with the U.S.
TS Financial Holdings chief economist Li Zhengyu pointed out that the ruling could have direct implications for Taiwan at a particularly sensitive time. U.S.-bound shipments from Taiwan continue to rise, fueled by the global artificial intelligence boom. A report citing U.S. trade data showed that Taiwan's exports to the U.S. actually surpassed China's in December, as tariffs and AI-driven demand reshuffled global trade flows.
The numbers tell a stark story. Data from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis released Thursday showed Taiwan's semiconductor shipments to the U.S. in December hit nearly $24.7 billion, edging out mainland China's $21.1 billion. This underscores just how much chips and related AI hardware now define the trade relationship between the U.S. and Taiwan.
Zhengyu also warned that the broader U.S. push to "institute economic security" could lead to lasting changes. He suggested this framework could mean increased scrutiny and restrictions across sensitive areas like semiconductors, AI hardware, labor conditions, and pricing. The result? Potentially tighter compliance requirements and more uncertainty for companies trying to navigate the global supply chain.
Adding another twist to this saga, the White House announced that Trump will travel to China from March 31 to April 2 for talks with President Xi Jinping. That trip injects a fresh dose of high-stakes geopolitics into an already complicated chip-and-trade equation. How Taiwan fits into those discussions—and whether it becomes a bargaining chip itself—is now a major question for markets and diplomats alike.
As for the market's immediate reaction? Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) shares were down 1.23% at $365.99 in premarket trading on Monday.
