Sometimes an analyst just changes their mind. That's what happened at JPMorgan, where analyst Reginald Smith decided he was too pessimistic on CompoSecure (CMPO).

Smith upgraded the stock from Underweight to Neutral and, more importantly, bumped his price target up from $16 to $20. The reason? The company's third-quarter results showed something promising: not just a one-time pop, but what looks like a sustainable trend of improving margins and accelerating organic growth.

"The company's margin expansion and reacceleration in organic growth 'appears to be sustainable,'" Smith said. That's the kind of phrase analysts use when they think the good times might keep rolling.

Management seems to agree. They didn't just meet expectations for the quarter; they raised their full-year 2025 guidance for both revenue and EBITDA by more than the quarterly beat itself implied. That suggests they're expecting a strong finish to the year, with high-teens year-over-year growth in the fourth quarter.

But they didn't stop there. CompoSecure also laid out its vision for 2026, calling for 10% revenue growth and an expansion in EBITDA margin by as much as 170 basis points to 37.3%. Those targets are ahead of what Wall Street was estimating, which is a good way to get analysts to sit up and take notice.

Smith took the hint and raised his own numbers. He now sees adjusted EBITDA hitting $168 million in 2025 and $187 million in 2026, up from previous estimates of $157 million and $164 million, respectively. And here's the kicker: he says those new estimates don't even include the expected Husky acquisition, which is slated to close in the first quarter of next year. That deal could be pure upside from here.

So, an analyst who was once skeptical is now more optimistic, convinced that the company's recent performance isn't a fluke. The market seemed to agree, at least a little, with shares ticking up slightly to $20.84 on the news.