So, here's what's happening with Nebius Group N.V. (NBIS) today: the stock is down. Not just a little down, but down nearly 9% at last check. Why? Because the company delivered a classic case of "good news, bad news" with its third-quarter results, and investors are focusing on the bad.
The good news is that Nebius lost less money than expected. The company reported an adjusted loss of 40 cents per share, which was better than the 44-cent loss analysts had predicted. That's the kind of beat that usually gets a thumbs-up.
The bad news, and the part that seems to be driving the selling, is on the top line. Revenue came in at $146.1 million. That missed the analyst consensus estimate of $153.69 million by about 4.94%. Missing on sales is often a bigger red flag for investors than beating on the bottom line, especially when the bottom line is still a loss.
Making matters worse, the company looked ahead and didn't like what it saw—or at least, it saw less than Wall Street did. Nebius projected that full-year sales will land somewhere between $500 million and $550 million. The problem? Analysts were expecting about $578.83 million. When a company guides below the Street's expectations, it's a pretty reliable recipe for a stock drop. That lowered outlook appears to be the main weight on shares today.
It's not all gloomy, though. Buried in the news is a pretty massive deal. Nebius also announced a $3 billion, five-year infrastructure agreement with Meta (META). A multi-billion dollar contract with a tech giant is the kind of thing that should provide some long-term stability and growth visibility. But today, the market is choosing to fret about the near-term revenue miss and guidance cut instead.
Interestingly, the analyst community isn't hitting the panic button. Northland Securities analyst Nehal Chokshi reiterated a Buy rating on the stock and slapped a $211 price target on it following the report. That's a hefty premium to where it's trading now. Meanwhile, CICC initiated coverage with an Outperform rating and a $143 price target. So, the pros see a path forward even if the market is throwing a tantrum today.
Let's look at the chart, because it tells an interesting story. Technically, Nebius is having a moment. The stock is currently trading about 12.8% below its 50-day moving average of $108.56. That suggests the stock is correcting after a run to higher levels—which makes sense given the sell-off on earnings. However, the long-term trend still looks robust. The 200-day moving average is way down at $57.81, and the current price is trading about 63.7% above that level. That's a healthy long-term uptrend.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is sitting at 42.70, which is smack in the middle of the neutral zone. It's not oversold, and it's not overbought. It's just... there. This neutral reading suggests the stock could go either way from here based on the next batch of news or market sentiment.
For the traders watching the ticker, key levels are in play. Support—a price floor where buyers might step in—is identified at $94.63, just a hair below where the stock was trading. If it holds above that, bargain hunters might see value. On the flip side, resistance—a ceiling that needs to be broken—is noted at $100.51. Getting back above that level would be a step toward a more bullish near-term outlook.
In the end, Nebius shares were down 8.67% at $93.42. The stock is still trading within its 52-week range of $17.38 to $141.10, which is a wild ride that puts today's drop in some perspective. The company beat on losses, missed on sales, cut its forecast, but also landed a huge deal with Meta. It's a mixed bag, and the market, for now, is choosing to focus on the negatives.
