When Applied Materials Inc. (AMAT) reports its fourth-quarter earnings after the bell on Thursday, the semiconductor equipment giant will be doing more than just sharing numbers. It'll be telling a story about navigating export restrictions to China, launching new AI products, and whether the worst of the industry's downturn is really in the rearview mirror.

Let's break down what the Street expects, what the analysts are whispering, and what you should be watching for.

The Numbers Game

Analysts, using market data, are looking for revenue of $6.67 billion. That's down from the $7.04 billion the company posted in the same quarter last year. Earnings per share are expected to come in at $2.10, also a dip from last year's $2.32.

But here's the thing: Applied Materials has made a habit of beating expectations. It has topped revenue estimates in nine of the last ten quarters and has beaten earnings-per-share estimates for thirteen consecutive quarters. The company's own guidance for Q4 was a range of $6.2 billion to $7.2 billion in revenue and EPS between $1.91 and $2.31, so the consensus sits comfortably within that band.

The Analyst Take: Changing the Narrative

The buzz ahead of the report is notably optimistic. Morgan Stanley analyst Joseph Moore, who maintains an Overweight rating and a $256 price target, thinks the company could deliver a strong quarter and guidance that outpaces current estimates.

"We believe AMAT can alleviate investor concerns around China, TSMC share, and the equity story that have weighed on YTD performance," Moore said. He believes the company is likely to guide for first-quarter revenue growth in the mid-single digits, which would be better than the Street's expectation for around 2% growth.

The core of his bullish argument? A potential shift in sentiment. "We think the risk-reward is skewed to the upside," Moore said, suggesting the quarterly results could show strength in DRAM (dynamic random-access memory) and help "de-risk" concerns about the China market. He argues that barring new export restrictions, the worst of the year-over-year declines is likely over and the "outlook is derisked."

Moore isn't alone in his upgraded outlook. Other firms have been raising their targets:

• Stiefel: Maintained a Buy rating and raised its price target from $215 to $250.
• Barclays: Maintained an Equal-Weight rating but raised its target from $170 to $250.
• Mizuho: Maintained a Neutral rating but raised its target from $175 to $215.
• Bank of America: Upgraded the stock from Neutral to Buy and raised its price target from $180 to $250.

What Else Is on the Radar?

Beyond the headline numbers, investors will be listening for updates on a few key fronts. The company recently announced a plan to reduce its global workforce by around 4%. CEO Gary Dickerson said the move was aimed at simplifying the company's organizational structure. How this impacts margins and efficiency will be a topic of discussion.

On the growth side, Applied Materials recently unveiled new manufacturing systems designed to enhance the performance of memory chips used for AI computing. This push into AI infrastructure could be a significant long-term driver, and management's commentary on demand will be closely parsed.

Finally, after what was a planned potential revenue decline in Q4, all eyes will quickly turn to the company's guidance for the next fiscal year. The forward outlook will be crucial in determining whether the current stock momentum is justified.

Stock in Focus

Applied Materials shares were up 0.6% to $230.07 in trading on Wednesday. The stock has had a strong run in 2025, up 40.1% year-to-date, and is currently trading near the top of its 52-week range of $123.74 to $242.44. The recent surge in analyst price targets and general market interest suggests many are betting the company's report on Thursday will give them more reasons to be optimistic.