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Markets Dip on Iran Tensions While Fed Minutes Reveal Discord on Rate Path

MarketDash
Wall Street New York Stock Exchange Shutterstock
U.S. stock futures fell Thursday as geopolitical tensions with Iran pushed oil prices higher and Federal Reserve meeting minutes revealed deep disagreements over interest rate policy. Despite the uncertainty, analysts see economic fundamentals supporting continued market strength.

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Thursday morning brought a dose of market reality after Wednesday's solid gains, with U.S. stock futures retreating across the board. The culprit? A familiar mix of geopolitical uncertainty and Federal Reserve intrigue that kept traders on edge.

All major benchmark index futures were trading lower as investors digested two significant developments: stalled indirect nuclear negotiations between Iran and the United States in Geneva (which sent oil prices climbing), and fresh insights from the Federal Reserve's January meeting minutes that revealed more internal discord than many expected.

The Fed minutes painted a picture of central bank officials genuinely divided on the path forward. While some policymakers floated the possibility of rate increases to combat stubborn inflation, the market isn't buying it. Traders continue to bet on two rate cuts before the year wraps up, a notable divergence from the more hawkish tones within the Fed.

Meanwhile, Treasury markets were relatively calm. The 10-year Treasury yield held at 4.10%, while the two-year sat at 3.47%. According to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, markets are pricing in a 94% likelihood that the Federal Reserve keeps rates exactly where they are at the March meeting. Translation: nobody expects fireworks anytime soon.

IndexPerformance (+/-)
Dow Jones-0.12%
S&P 500-0.08%
Nasdaq 100-0.08%
Russell 2000-0.24%

The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) and Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (QQQ), which track the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 respectively, both dipped in premarket trading Thursday. The SPY was down 0.17% at $685.11, while the QQQ declined 0.18% to $604.68.

Movers and Shakers: Who's Making Waves

DoorDash Delivers Strong Outlook

DoorDash Inc. (DASH) jumped 13.57% in premarket trading despite posting fourth-quarter results that missed expectations. Why the enthusiasm? Guidance. The food delivery giant projected first-quarter marketplace gross order value between $31 billion and $31.8 billion, with adjusted EBITDA ranging from $675 million to $775 million. That's the kind of forward-looking optimism investors love to see.

According to market data, DASH maintains a weaker price trend over the long, short, and medium terms, though it earns a solid growth ranking.

eBay Scores Big on Earnings and Acquisition

eBay Inc. (EBAY) soared 7.87% after delivering better-than-expected fourth-quarter results. But that wasn't the only news. The e-commerce veteran announced a definitive agreement with Etsy Inc. (ETSY) to acquire Depop, the fashion-focused marketplace that's been a hit with younger consumers. It's a strategic move that signals eBay's commitment to diversifying its platform appeal.

Market data shows EBAY maintains stronger price trends over the short and medium terms, though the long-term trend remains weak. Its quality ranking sits at a moderate level.

Lockheed Martin Wins Military Contract

Lockheed Martin Corp. (LMT) rose 0.47% following news of a foreign military sale contract awarded through Wright-Patterson Air Force Base. The deal will see Lockheed deliver C-130J training devices and upgrades to the Royal Australian Air Force. It's the kind of steady defense contract win that keeps the aerospace giant humming along.

LMT maintains stronger price trends across short, medium, and long terms, though its value ranking remains poor by comparison.

Interactive Strength Flexes on Acquisition News

Interactive Strength Inc. (TRNR) gained 12.47% after announcing a definitive agreement to acquire Ergatta, Inc., a game-based connected fitness company. The deal represents a strategic expansion into the competitive home fitness market, where engagement and differentiation are key.

Market data indicates TRNR maintains weaker price trends across short, medium, and long terms.

Walmart Faces Earnings Pressure

Walmart Inc. (WMT) tumbled 1.50% ahead of its quarterly earnings report. Analysts expect the retail giant to post earnings of 73 cents per share on revenue of $190.43 billion when results drop before the opening bell. Walmart has set a high bar for itself with consistent performance, so any miss could weigh on shares.

Despite the premarket dip, WMT maintains a strong price trend over the long, medium, and short terms, with a solid quality ranking to boot.

What Happened Wednesday

Wednesday's session told a more optimistic story. Consumer discretionary, energy, and information technology stocks led the S&P 500 higher, though real estate and utilities lagged behind.

IndexPerformance (+/-)Value
Dow Jones0.26%49,662.66
S&P 5000.56%6,881.31
Nasdaq Composite0.78%22,753.64
Russell 20000.45%2,658.61
Get Market Alerts

Weekly insights + SMS (optional)

The Bull Case Remains Intact

Jeremy Siegel maintains a constructive outlook on the U.S. economy, arguing that recent data provide a "backdrop for the expansion" of the bull market rather than its derailment.

He points to a "sweet spot" in the labor market where jobless claims signal resilience without overheating. Coupled with a significant "near-2% annual gain in weekly pay," consumer purchasing power is meaningfully improving. This combination of cooling inflation and rising real income, Siegel argues, creates an environment where the Federal Reserve has ample room to continue lowering interest rates.

While "AI-driven disruption fears" have introduced market anxiety and repriced entire industries, Siegel views this volatility as a typical reaction to technological revolutions. He contends that these advancements will ultimately "expand productivity and real incomes" across diverse sectors like financials and healthcare. Rather than viewing accelerating output per hour as a recessionary threat, he interprets it as a "prosperity signal" that could even make a four-day workweek viable.

For investors, he sees valuation support in the "continued healthy market rotation" toward non-tech sectors trading at reasonable multiples. In other words, don't panic over short-term volatility when the fundamentals remain sound.

What's on the Economic Calendar

Thursday brings several key data points worth watching:

  • Initial jobless claims for the week ending Feb. 14 and December's U.S. trade deficit data will both be released by 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari will speak at 9:00 a.m., and December's leading economic index data will be out by 10:00 a.m. ET.

Commodities, Crypto, and Global Markets

Crude oil futures were trading higher in the early New York session, up 1.20% to hover around $65.83 per barrel. The stalled Iran-U.S. talks are the obvious catalyst here, with geopolitical risk premiums returning to energy markets.

Gold Spot US Dollar rose 0.66% to around $5,010.58 per ounce. Its last record high stood at $5,595.46 per ounce. The U.S. Dollar Index spot was 0.11% lower at the 97.5940 level.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin (BTC) was trading 1.75% lower at $66,991.78 per coin, continuing its recent consolidation pattern.

Asian markets closed mixed on Thursday. China's CSI 300 and India's Nifty 50 indices fell, while Japan's Nikkei 225, South Korea's Kospi, Australia's ASX 200, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng indices closed higher. European markets were mostly lower in early trade, reflecting the cautious mood spreading across global markets.

Markets Dip on Iran Tensions While Fed Minutes Reveal Discord on Rate Path

MarketDash
Wall Street New York Stock Exchange Shutterstock
U.S. stock futures fell Thursday as geopolitical tensions with Iran pushed oil prices higher and Federal Reserve meeting minutes revealed deep disagreements over interest rate policy. Despite the uncertainty, analysts see economic fundamentals supporting continued market strength.

Get Market Alerts

Weekly insights + SMS alerts

Thursday morning brought a dose of market reality after Wednesday's solid gains, with U.S. stock futures retreating across the board. The culprit? A familiar mix of geopolitical uncertainty and Federal Reserve intrigue that kept traders on edge.

All major benchmark index futures were trading lower as investors digested two significant developments: stalled indirect nuclear negotiations between Iran and the United States in Geneva (which sent oil prices climbing), and fresh insights from the Federal Reserve's January meeting minutes that revealed more internal discord than many expected.

The Fed minutes painted a picture of central bank officials genuinely divided on the path forward. While some policymakers floated the possibility of rate increases to combat stubborn inflation, the market isn't buying it. Traders continue to bet on two rate cuts before the year wraps up, a notable divergence from the more hawkish tones within the Fed.

Meanwhile, Treasury markets were relatively calm. The 10-year Treasury yield held at 4.10%, while the two-year sat at 3.47%. According to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, markets are pricing in a 94% likelihood that the Federal Reserve keeps rates exactly where they are at the March meeting. Translation: nobody expects fireworks anytime soon.

IndexPerformance (+/-)
Dow Jones-0.12%
S&P 500-0.08%
Nasdaq 100-0.08%
Russell 2000-0.24%

The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) and Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (QQQ), which track the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 respectively, both dipped in premarket trading Thursday. The SPY was down 0.17% at $685.11, while the QQQ declined 0.18% to $604.68.

Movers and Shakers: Who's Making Waves

DoorDash Delivers Strong Outlook

DoorDash Inc. (DASH) jumped 13.57% in premarket trading despite posting fourth-quarter results that missed expectations. Why the enthusiasm? Guidance. The food delivery giant projected first-quarter marketplace gross order value between $31 billion and $31.8 billion, with adjusted EBITDA ranging from $675 million to $775 million. That's the kind of forward-looking optimism investors love to see.

According to market data, DASH maintains a weaker price trend over the long, short, and medium terms, though it earns a solid growth ranking.

eBay Scores Big on Earnings and Acquisition

eBay Inc. (EBAY) soared 7.87% after delivering better-than-expected fourth-quarter results. But that wasn't the only news. The e-commerce veteran announced a definitive agreement with Etsy Inc. (ETSY) to acquire Depop, the fashion-focused marketplace that's been a hit with younger consumers. It's a strategic move that signals eBay's commitment to diversifying its platform appeal.

Market data shows EBAY maintains stronger price trends over the short and medium terms, though the long-term trend remains weak. Its quality ranking sits at a moderate level.

Lockheed Martin Wins Military Contract

Lockheed Martin Corp. (LMT) rose 0.47% following news of a foreign military sale contract awarded through Wright-Patterson Air Force Base. The deal will see Lockheed deliver C-130J training devices and upgrades to the Royal Australian Air Force. It's the kind of steady defense contract win that keeps the aerospace giant humming along.

LMT maintains stronger price trends across short, medium, and long terms, though its value ranking remains poor by comparison.

Interactive Strength Flexes on Acquisition News

Interactive Strength Inc. (TRNR) gained 12.47% after announcing a definitive agreement to acquire Ergatta, Inc., a game-based connected fitness company. The deal represents a strategic expansion into the competitive home fitness market, where engagement and differentiation are key.

Market data indicates TRNR maintains weaker price trends across short, medium, and long terms.

Walmart Faces Earnings Pressure

Walmart Inc. (WMT) tumbled 1.50% ahead of its quarterly earnings report. Analysts expect the retail giant to post earnings of 73 cents per share on revenue of $190.43 billion when results drop before the opening bell. Walmart has set a high bar for itself with consistent performance, so any miss could weigh on shares.

Despite the premarket dip, WMT maintains a strong price trend over the long, medium, and short terms, with a solid quality ranking to boot.

What Happened Wednesday

Wednesday's session told a more optimistic story. Consumer discretionary, energy, and information technology stocks led the S&P 500 higher, though real estate and utilities lagged behind.

IndexPerformance (+/-)Value
Dow Jones0.26%49,662.66
S&P 5000.56%6,881.31
Nasdaq Composite0.78%22,753.64
Russell 20000.45%2,658.61
Get Market Alerts

Weekly insights + SMS (optional)

The Bull Case Remains Intact

Jeremy Siegel maintains a constructive outlook on the U.S. economy, arguing that recent data provide a "backdrop for the expansion" of the bull market rather than its derailment.

He points to a "sweet spot" in the labor market where jobless claims signal resilience without overheating. Coupled with a significant "near-2% annual gain in weekly pay," consumer purchasing power is meaningfully improving. This combination of cooling inflation and rising real income, Siegel argues, creates an environment where the Federal Reserve has ample room to continue lowering interest rates.

While "AI-driven disruption fears" have introduced market anxiety and repriced entire industries, Siegel views this volatility as a typical reaction to technological revolutions. He contends that these advancements will ultimately "expand productivity and real incomes" across diverse sectors like financials and healthcare. Rather than viewing accelerating output per hour as a recessionary threat, he interprets it as a "prosperity signal" that could even make a four-day workweek viable.

For investors, he sees valuation support in the "continued healthy market rotation" toward non-tech sectors trading at reasonable multiples. In other words, don't panic over short-term volatility when the fundamentals remain sound.

What's on the Economic Calendar

Thursday brings several key data points worth watching:

  • Initial jobless claims for the week ending Feb. 14 and December's U.S. trade deficit data will both be released by 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari will speak at 9:00 a.m., and December's leading economic index data will be out by 10:00 a.m. ET.

Commodities, Crypto, and Global Markets

Crude oil futures were trading higher in the early New York session, up 1.20% to hover around $65.83 per barrel. The stalled Iran-U.S. talks are the obvious catalyst here, with geopolitical risk premiums returning to energy markets.

Gold Spot US Dollar rose 0.66% to around $5,010.58 per ounce. Its last record high stood at $5,595.46 per ounce. The U.S. Dollar Index spot was 0.11% lower at the 97.5940 level.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin (BTC) was trading 1.75% lower at $66,991.78 per coin, continuing its recent consolidation pattern.

Asian markets closed mixed on Thursday. China's CSI 300 and India's Nifty 50 indices fell, while Japan's Nikkei 225, South Korea's Kospi, Australia's ASX 200, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng indices closed higher. European markets were mostly lower in early trade, reflecting the cautious mood spreading across global markets.