If you want to know what the crowd thinks about geopolitics, follow the money. And right now, prediction market bettors are increasingly convinced that Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei might not hold onto power much longer.

Rising Stakes, Rising Odds

Data from Kalshi, a federally authorized prediction market platform, shows more than $21.8 million has been wagered on whether Khamenei will be removed as Supreme Leader. The odds have jumped significantly: bettors now give it a 48% probability that he'll be out before September 1, 2026—that's a 12 percentage point increase.

Some traders are betting on even faster timelines. The July 1, 2026 option sits at 42% probability, while April 1, 2026 carries 30% odds, also up 12%.

Why the Sudden Interest?

U.S.-Iran relations have been strained for years, but tensions have escalated sharply recently. President Donald Trump has hinted at potential action against the Islamic Republic, ratcheting up the pressure.

Khamenei responded with his own warnings, threatening a "slap" to the "strongest army in the world" during live-fire military drills that temporarily closed the Strait of Hormuz—a critical oil and shipping waterway that the global economy depends on.

Trouble at Home and Abroad

External pressure isn't Khamenei's only problem. Internally, Iran has faced widespread protests across the country. According to an AP report, activists claim more than 7,000 people have been killed in these demonstrations—a staggering toll that highlights deep domestic unrest.

Leading the Pack

Another Kalshi contract takes a broader view, betting on which world leader will be removed from power by 2027. Khamenei tops that list at 63% probability, up 9 percentage points. That's the highest odds among global leaders—a notable distinction that reflects both the internal and external pressures bearing down on Iran's supreme authority.

Whether prediction markets are prophetic or just reflecting heightened anxiety is anyone's guess. But when this much money flows into political betting contracts, it's worth paying attention to what the crowd sees coming.