Remember when someone predicts exactly how something will go wrong, and then it goes wrong in precisely that way? Supreme Court Justice Neil Gorsuch is having one of those moments. Last fall, he warned about the dangers of President Donald Trump's use of emergency powers to impose tariffs. Now Congress is mounting a rare challenge that's playing out exactly as he sketched it.

The One-Way Ratchet Problem

During November hearings over Trump's reliance on the 1977 International Emergency Economic Powers Act to slap duties on multiple countries, Gorsuch raised a pointed concern. The administration's interpretation, he suggested, risked creating a "one-way ratchet" where power flows from Congress to the White House and never flows back.

"It's going to be veto-proof," he said of emergency declarations. "What president's ever going to give that power back? A pretty rare president. So how should that inform our view?"

Those questions aren't theoretical anymore. The justices are preparing to issue opinions on three separate days between now and next Wednesday, and global markets are watching closely for the ruling in the consolidated tariffs case.

Congress Tries (And Mostly Fails) To Push Back

Here's where Gorsuch's prediction meets reality. Last week, the House voted 219-211 to terminate the national emergency underpinning Trump's tariffs on Canada. Six Republicans broke ranks to join Democrats under the IEEPA framework. The measure now heads to the Senate, where similar efforts have drawn bipartisan support.

But here's the catch that proves Gorsuch's point: even if the resolution reaches Trump's desk, the revolt is largely symbolic. Supporters are nowhere near the two-thirds majority required in both chambers to override the veto everyone expects. That's the ratchet in action.

Technically, lawmakers could amend IEEPA to clarify whether it authorizes these tariffs. Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.), however, isn't interested in reopening the statute. He's suggested Congress should give "a little bit more runway" for the dispute to work itself out between the executive and judicial branches.

The Administration's Defense

The Trump administration is urging the court to trust that Congress can reclaim power when it wants to. Solicitor General D. John Sauer has pointed to lawmakers' bipartisan vote to end the COVID-19 emergency as proof the system still functions as designed.

Meanwhile, prediction markets show traders betting the justices are more likely than not to strike down at least some of the tariffs, though those odds shift with every new signal from the court. Investors are watching both branches closely to see whether Gorsuch's warning becomes the blueprint for how this all resolves.