FiscalNote Holdings, Inc. (NOTE) announced Thursday it's jumping into the political prediction market game, launching a preview experience that aims to carve out space in what's become a surprisingly hot sector. If you've been paying attention to politics lately, you've probably noticed prediction markets popping up everywhere—and FiscalNote wants in on the action.

The stock wasn't exactly celebrating the news, though. Shares dropped 3.18% to $0.85 in Friday's premarket session, riding along with broader market weakness that saw the S&P 500 slip 0.14% and the Nasdaq lose 0.13%.

Betting on Political Insights

FiscalNote has rolled out PoliticalPredictions.com as its entry point into this expanding market. The company's pitch is straightforward: it already has the AI tools and policy datasets, so why not apply them to an area where people are increasingly interested in forecasting political outcomes?

And there's real money flowing through these markets now. Monthly trading volumes have reached into the billions, driven by growing consumer appetite for outcome-based forecasting. It's not just political junkies anymore—prediction markets are becoming mainstream.

To beef up its credibility, FiscalNote brought on Dr. Laila Mintas as a Strategic Advisor. She's got more than 20 years of experience in prediction market design and regulation, which should help the company navigate what's still a developing regulatory landscape.

Josh Resnik, President & CEO of FiscalNote, framed the move as getting ahead of a major shift: "As public interest in politics and policy decisions accelerates, this category is poised to reshape how political insight is formed, shared, and acted upon, extending well beyond traditional audiences. With this expansion into prediction markets, FiscalNote is positioning itself to define this space over time, bringing its policy intelligence, data sets, and expertise into a category that is still taking shape."

The company also signed a non-binding memorandum of understanding with 365Prediction, an AI-driven prediction platform. They're exploring collaboration on market design, technology, and product development, with the possibility of integrating FiscalNote's policy data into the mix.

The strategy seems to be about establishing a foothold early. PoliticalPredictions.com is positioned as a way to engage users, refine forecasting models, and build out a credible approach to political and policy insights before the space gets too crowded.

The Technical Picture Isn't Pretty

While FiscalNote is making forward-looking moves, the stock's recent performance has been rough. Shares are currently trading 37.4% below their 20-day simple moving average and a staggering 69% below their 100-day SMA. That signals serious short-term and medium-term weakness.

The 12-month view is even more painful: the stock has plummeted 96.20% over the past year and is hovering much closer to its 52-week low of $0.80 than any recent high.

There are some mixed technical signals, though. The RSI sits at 27.90, which is considered oversold territory—suggesting the stock might be undervalued at current levels. On the flip side, the MACD is below its signal line, pointing to continued bearish pressure. So you've got oversold conditions meeting ongoing negative momentum.

• Key Resistance: $1.00
• Key Support: 80 cents

What's Coming on the Earnings Front

FiscalNote Holdings is scheduled to report its next financial results on March 12, 2026. Analysts are expecting continued losses, though with some improvement on the bottom line.

• EPS Estimate: Loss of 39 cents (an improvement from a $1.20 loss year-over-year)
• Revenue Estimate: $22.40 million (down from $29.47 million year-over-year)

So the company is expected to narrow its losses significantly, but revenue is projected to decline. That's the backdrop against which this prediction market expansion is happening—FiscalNote is looking for new growth avenues while its core business faces headwinds.

NOTE Price Action: FiscalNote Holdings shares were down 3.18% at $0.85 during premarket trading on Friday, hovering near the stock's 52-week low of $0.80.