Remember that $1.2 trillion funding package President Donald Trump signed just days ago? Well, the government shutdown crisis is back, and this time it's scheduled for Valentine's Day.

The Department of Homeland Security is staring down a partial shutdown after Senate Democrats blocked two funding bills on Thursday, according to The Washington Post. And with lawmakers already heading out for a weeklong recess, this one looks pretty much inevitable.

Why Democrats Are Blocking the Money

The blockage centers on demands for changes to DHS operations after federal immigration agents killed Alex Pretti in Minneapolis. While Trump reportedly showed willingness to consider some changes, Democrats rejected a White House proposal on Wednesday.

When the vote came, every Democrat except Sen. John Fetterman (D-PA.) voted against advancing the legislation that would have funded DHS through September 30. Then Congress left town for a week. You can see where this is going.

Bettors Are Putting Their Money Where Their Mouth Is

On Kalshi, a federally authorized prediction market platform, traders have placed over $6 million in bets on whether a government shutdown happens. The current odds? A whopping 96% probability that the shutdown occurs on Saturday, up 11.9%. Only 4% of bettors think it'll be avoided.

Fetterman, the lone Democrat who supported the funding bill, predicted this outcome earlier this month.

The Context Makes This Even Worse

This potential shutdown comes at a particularly awkward time. The U.S. just wrapped up a historic 43-day shutdown—the longest in American history. That marathon budget standoff caused an estimated $7 billion to $14 billion loss in real GDP and forced nearly 900,000 federal employees to either work without pay or face furloughs.

And if that wasn't enough drama, Trump also took a surprising loss in the House just days ago when six House Republicans broke ranks to join Democrats in passing a resolution aimed at repealing his tariffs on Canada. So it's been quite a week in Washington, and it's only getting more complicated.