If you thought the memory chip shortage was bad, Goldman Sachs has news for you: it's about to get worse. And if you're investing in the right companies, that might actually be great news.
The global supply of memory chips—particularly DRAM, NAND, and high-bandwidth memory (HBM)—is tightening into what Goldman analyst Giuni Lee describes as the most severe crunch in more than 15 years. The result? A pricing environment that could drive earnings and margins for memory producers toward cycle highs.
The Numbers Behind the Shortage
Goldman's updated forecasts paint a picture of serious supply constraints ahead. The firm now expects DRAM undersupply of roughly 4.9% in 2026 and 2.5% in 2027, both well above previous estimates. NAND faces similar pressure, with anticipated undersupply of about 4.2% in 2026 and 2.1% in 2027.
What's driving this squeeze? Server memory has become the dominant force in global DRAM demand. AI servers and data centers are gobbling up conventional DRAM, SOCAMM, and HBM at an accelerating pace. Goldman forecasts that server-related memory will represent more than 50% of total DRAM demand in both 2026 and 2027.
Meanwhile, demand from personal computers and smartphones—historically major memory consumers—is slowing down as higher component costs take their toll. The shift in demand mix is dramatic and structural, not cyclical.
Enterprise storage is another accelerating force. Goldman estimates that enterprise solid-state drive usage is expanding at a pace far exceeding the broader market, driven by the need to store and retrieve massive volumes of AI inference data. When you're running AI models, you need fast access to enormous datasets, and that means enterprise SSDs.
Pricing Power Returns With a Vengeance
Here's where things get interesting for investors. Goldman now anticipates conventional DRAM pricing will surge approximately 176% year-over-year in 2026, with average selling prices approaching historically robust levels. Operating margins for major DRAM producers could hit 70%-80%, nearing record territory.
NAND pricing should also climb, though more moderately. Goldman sees year-over-year price gains of 100%-120% in 2026, with strong operating margins above 40% for leading producers. Not quite the bonanza that DRAM producers face, but hardly a disappointment.
Seven Stocks Goldman Says Can Capture the Upside
Samsung Electronics (SSNLF) sits at the center of Goldman's thesis thanks to what Lee calls "outsized exposure" to conventional memory. The firm expects Samsung's 2026 operating profit to more than quadruple, surging past 180 trillion won.
"We believe the company will continue to enjoy significant earnings upside given our continued expectation of a much stronger conventional memory pricing increase starting 1Q26 and continuing throughout 2026," Lee noted in the research report shared Monday.
SK Hynix Inc. remains Goldman's preferred way to play AI memory. Lee expects "an unprecedented operating margin level" this year, with DRAM margins in the high-70% range. The company has also announced shareholder-friendly measures including buybacks, dividends, and a potential ADR listing that could unlock additional value.
SanDisk Corp. (SNDK) is Goldman's NAND-focused pick. Lee expects "meaningful upward revisions" to earnings as supply remains tight and enterprise demand accelerates. Goldman's 12-month target price of $700 implies roughly 20% upside from current levels.
Micron Technology Inc. (MU) didn't earn a Buy rating but still made Goldman's key list. Lee maintained a Neutral rating while noting that Micron could capture approximately 20% share of the HBM market. "We would consider being more constructive on the stock if we see continued supply growth discipline across the industry into 2027," Goldman added.
Rounding out the list are equipment makers positioned to benefit from capacity expansion: Tokyo Electron Ltd. (TOELF), Ulvac Inc. (ULVAF), and Disco Corp. (DISPF). These companies provide the specialized tools needed to manufacture memory chips, so they should see demand rise as producers race to add capacity.
The memory shortage trade isn't just about scarcity—it's about a fundamental shift in where memory gets used and how much pricing power that shift creates. Goldman thinks the winners are already visible.