Eli Lilly and Co. (LLY) shares were trading lower Thursday, likely due to profit-taking after the stock surged roughly 10% Wednesday on blowout earnings. Sometimes good news gets priced in fast.
The pharmaceutical giant reported fourth-quarter adjusted earnings of $7.54 per share Wednesday, crushing consensus estimates of $6.67. Sales hit $19.3 billion, topping the $17.96 billion analysts expected. Those are solid numbers, but the real story was in the forward-looking guidance.
For 2026, Eli Lilly expects sales between $80 billion and $83 billion—well above Wall Street's $77.62 billion estimate. The company also projects adjusted earnings of $33.50 to $35 per share compared to the consensus of $33.23. That kind of ambitious outlook tells you management feels pretty confident about where demand is headed.
Why Analysts Are Paying Attention
Cantor analyst Carter Gould sees the 2026 guidance as a strong pushback against worries about GLP-1 pricing or weakening demand. He maintains an Overweight rating on Eli Lilly and raised his price target to $1,205 from $985, citing portfolio momentum and an improving environment for biopharma overall.
Here's the math Gould is working with: his topline estimate of roughly $82 billion for fiscal 2026 implies incretin sales around $57 billion. That would represent a $16 billion jump over fiscal 2025, with only about $1 billion coming from orforglipron, the company's oral weight-loss pill.
"We expect the stock direction to be driven by the evolution of orforglipron prescription (which investors expect to launch early next quarter)," Gould wrote. "Though there are encouragingly clear sources of upside to numbers that don't involve the U.S. orforglipron ramp, we think those are less relevant if the orforglipron prescription ramp is less persuasive."
In other words, the orforglipron launch matters—a lot. Cantor expects over 3 million orforglipron prescriptions in fiscal 2026, which Gould considers reasonable given it's a partial year, Medicare access starts mid-year, and there shouldn't be much cannibalization of existing products.
Shares of Eli Lilly were down 6.47% at $1,035.50 at the time of publication Thursday.
