The pressure campaign is on. President Donald Trump and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent have been calling for aggressive interest rate cuts, but the Federal Reserve isn't budging just yet. Last week, the Fed hit pause and kept the federal funds rate unchanged, much to Trump's frustration.

All Eyes on the March Meeting

Now everyone's watching Fed Chair Jerome Powell and the next Federal Open Market Committee meeting on March 18. Will he finally deliver the cuts Trump wants?

After last week's decision to hold rates steady, Trump didn't hold back. He called for immediate cuts and accused Powell of damaging the economy. "He is hurting our Country, and its National Security," Trump said.

What the Smart Money Thinks

Here's where it gets interesting. On Kalshi, a federally authorized betting platform, over $3 million has been wagered on the question "Fed decision in March?" The prediction market is pretty clear about what's coming.

Most bettors think rates will stay put. There's a 90% probability that the Fed will maintain the current rate, up by 1%. Only 9% of bettors think there will be a 25 basis point cut, while just 2% expect a 25 basis point hike.

The CME Group's FedWatch tool tells a similar story, showing markets pricing in a 91.1% likelihood that the Federal Reserve leaves rates unchanged in March.

The Warsh Factor

But here's the twist: Trump's Fed Chair nominee, Kevin Warsh, is expected to cut rates faster once he replaces Powell. According to Steven Major, global macro advisor at broker Tradition Dubai, there could be "four or five" rate cuts under Warsh's leadership.

Warsh will take over when Powell's term ends in May 2026. He previously served on the Fed's Board of Governors from 2006 to 2011, so he knows the institution well.

Trump, characteristically optimistic about his pick, said Warsh "will go down as one of the Great Fed Chairmen, maybe the best."

So while March looks like a no-go for rate cuts, the bigger picture might be shifting. Powell's holding the line for now, but change could be coming faster than expected once Warsh takes the reins.