Here's a new twist on Super Bowl betting: forget the point spread, you can now wager on whether Salesforce (CRM) will buy a commercial slot.

Prediction market platforms Kalshi and Polymarket have rolled out contracts that let users trade on which companies will advertise during Super Bowl 60 on Feb. 8 in Santa Clara, California. Want to bet on whether Verizon (VZ) or Coca-Cola (KO) will appear during the big game? Now you can.

The mechanics work a lot like stock trading. Contracts are priced between $0 and $1, fluctuating based on trading activity. If your prediction hits, you pocket $1 per contract, minus fees. Polymarket keeps it simple with straightforward "Yes/No" bets, while Kalshi gets creative with questions like "Who will appear in a big game ad before Feb 9, 2026?" featuring options on Sydney Sweeney, Timothée Chalamet, and Harry Styles.

But here's where things get messy. This setup has sparked worries about insider trading, according to CNBC. Think about it: hundreds, possibly thousands, of employees at any given company know whether their employer plans to run a Super Bowl commercial. That's a lot of people with material, non-public information who could theoretically profit from these contracts.

Sure, insider trading is already illegal on prediction markets under current law. The problem? Industry experts are skeptical that the Commodity Futures Trading Commission has the manpower or resources to actually police these platforms effectively.

The emergence of Super Bowl ad prediction markets highlights a classic regulatory challenge: innovation moves faster than oversight. These platforms offer a novel way for people to engage with major events, but they also create new opportunities for abuse. As these markets gain traction, regulators will need to figure out how to monitor them without crushing the innovation that makes them interesting in the first place.

It's yet another example of digital markets evolving faster than the agencies tasked with keeping them honest.