When Western sanctions squeeze hard enough, even Russia's biggest oil companies start selling. Lukoil, the country's second-largest oil producer, announced Thursday it's reached a preliminary agreement with U.S. private equity giant Carlyle Group to sell off the bulk of its international operations. Think of it as a forced garage sale, except the "garage" contains oil fields spanning from Iraq to Mexico, thousands of gas stations across 20 countries, and refineries in Bulgaria and Romania.
Carlyle Group in Talks to Buy Lukoil's Global Empire as Sanctions Force Russian Oil Giant's Hand
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The Price of Doing Business Under Sanctions
Neither company disclosed what Carlyle might pay for this sprawling energy empire, though Lukoil previously pegged the book value of its entire international business at $22 billion. The portfolio represents about 0.5% of global oil production, which sounds small until you remember that global oil production is enormous.
Notably absent from the deal: Lukoil's interests in Kazakhstan, which are apparently staying off the table for now. Kazakhstan itself has other ideas, having submitted a separate bid to U.S. authorities on Wednesday to acquire Russian oil producers' stakes in the country's energy projects.
The sale comes four months after the U.S. slapped sanctions on both Lukoil and Rosneft, Russia's two largest oil producers, in response to the ongoing Ukraine conflict. When you can't do business normally, you start looking for exits.
A Bidding War in the Making
Here's where it gets interesting: Lukoil's agreement with Carlyle is conditional and non-exclusive, meaning the company is keeping its options open. Smart move, because there's apparently a line forming.
Chevron Corporation (CVX) and Quantum Capital Group are reportedly preparing a joint competing bid. ExxonMobil (XOM) and Abu Dhabi's International Holding Company have also kicked the tires on Lukoil's international portfolio. When multiple oil majors start circling, you know there's value in the assets despite the complicated geopolitical backdrop.
The whole negotiation process became possible only in November, when the U.S. Treasury Department gave potential buyers permission to actually talk to Lukoil about purchasing its foreign assets. Without that authorization, even having the conversation would've been problematic.
Despite the forced asset sale, analysts at S&P Global expect Lukoil's oil and gas output from overseas operations to continue rising through the end of the decade. That growth trajectory probably explains why so many buyers are interested, even with the sanctions complications baked into the deal.
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