If there's one thing dealmakers agree on heading into 2026, it's that the M&A market is looking pretty good. A new survey from Deloitte shows that optimism is running high among both corporate and private equity executives, with more than 80% of the 1,500 participants expecting deal volumes and values to climb over the next year.

The enthusiasm makes sense when you look at how 2025 played out. Transaction activity picked up serious momentum in the back half of the year. Deal values started relatively flat, hitting $398 billion in the first quarter and $389 billion in the second. Then things got interesting: the third quarter saw a 50% jump to $584 billion, and the fourth quarter pushed even higher with a 22% increase to $714 billion. Deloitte notes that a handful of very large transactions likely drove much of that late-year surge.

International Deals Losing Their Shine

While the overall vibe is positive, Deloitte says expectations are "more tempered" than they might appear on the surface. The firm points out that deal activity moves with the broader economy, and current macroeconomic signals suggest dealmakers should approach 2026 with caution and well-thought-out strategies.

One notable shift: cross-border acquisitions are falling out of favor. The percentage of survey respondents focused primarily on international deals dropped from 36% in 2024 to just 24% in 2025, a 12-point decline. The culprit? Volatile global economic conditions, tariffs, and general uncertainty about trade relationships.

Those headwinds aren't going anywhere in 2026, which means buyers and sellers will likely need to stay nimble when it comes to international transactions this year, according to the report.

What's Keeping Dealmakers Up at Night

Deloitte identifies several macroeconomic concerns that could complicate the M&A landscape. The Federal Reserve's monetary policy remains uncertain, particularly around interest rates, and there's the added wrinkle that a new Fed chair is expected in 2026. Inflation is creeping upward, potentially fueled by variable tariff impacts, while unemployment may deteriorate and both consumer and business confidence appear to be declining.

Interest rates continue to be a sticking point for private equity dealmakers especially. Current rates remain above where they were in 2022, making debt "too costly" for some M&A leaders looking to finance deals.

Regulation is another factor in the mix. President Donald Trump's One Big Beautiful Bill Act became law in July and created tax implications that could affect deal outcomes for both buyers and sellers throughout 2026.

Despite these concerns, there's a silver lining. Approximately $2 trillion in total U.S. deal value in 2025 represented the third-largest figure of the past decade. Interestingly, 33% of that value came from just 20 mega-transactions, most of which happened in the second half of the year.

Opportunity in the Middle Market

Deloitte sees "ample opportunities" for small and medium-sized deals in 2026. These markets have been relatively flat for several years, which the firm interprets as a sign of "untapped potential and pent-up demand" waiting to be unleashed.

AI's Growing Role

Nearly every respondent in the survey reported actively using artificial intelligence somewhere in the M&A process, whether for screening potential targets, conducting due diligence, or managing post-acquisition integration. Dealmakers are particularly interested in figuring out how AI can add value after deals close.

When asked about AI's impact on M&A decision-making over the next two years, 48% of respondents said it would have a moderate impact, while 35% predicted a significant impact. In other words, AI isn't just a buzzword anymore; it's becoming a standard tool in the dealmaker's toolkit.