The waiting game is almost over. President Donald Trump announced Thursday evening that he'll reveal his pick for Federal Reserve Chair on Friday morning, ending months of speculation about who will lead the nation's central bank.
Trump Names Fed Chair Pick Friday as Kevin Warsh Takes Commanding Lead
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Trump Ready to Make the Call
"I'll be announcing the Fed chair tomorrow morning," Trump told reporters at the premiere for the film "Melania" on Thursday, according to CNBC. He made it clear he's already made up his mind, but he's keeping the name under wraps for now.
The shortlist includes some heavy hitters: Kevin Warsh, a former Federal Reserve governor; National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett; Rick Rieder, BlackRock's chief investment officer of global fixed income; and current Fed Governor Christopher Waller.
Warsh Takes the Lead
If you had to bet on it, Kevin Warsh looks like your guy. According to Reuters, Warsh met with Trump at the White House on Thursday, a pretty strong signal when you're picking someone for one of the most powerful economic positions in the world.
The Money Talks
Prediction markets are putting serious weight behind Warsh. On Kalshi, a federally authorized betting platform, traders have wagered over $81.6 million on who Trump will nominate as Fed Chair. That's not pocket change.
Warsh is currently sitting at a 92% probability of getting the nomination, a jump of 59 percentage points. Rick Rieder trails as a distant second with just 6% probability, while Kevin Hassett holds third place at 2%.
Building Tension at the Fed
Trump previously told The New York Times he'd made his choice but wasn't ready to share it publicly. Now we're about to find out.
This decision lands at a particularly charged moment. Trump has sparred publicly with current Fed Chair Jerome Powell multiple times, even threatening legal action over what he's called incompetence. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has piled on, criticizing the Federal Reserve for substantial financial losses stemming from "mistimed asset purchases."
The announcement Friday morning should settle the question and give markets a clearer picture of where monetary policy might be headed.
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