The betting crowd thinks a government shutdown just got less likely. Traders on prediction markets sharply reduced the odds of federal agencies going dark this month after President Donald Trump signaled that Republicans and Democrats are nearing a funding deal.

The Numbers Shift

On Polymarket, the probability of a shutdown dropped to 59% from 72% just a day earlier. That's a pretty significant move, especially considering more than $27 million has been wagered on this question alone—making it one of the platform's hottest markets right now.

The market resolves to "Yes" if the Office of Personnel Management announces a federal government shutdown caused by a lapse in appropriations by Jan. 31. Polymarket runs on Polygon (POL) and lets users place bets using the USDC stablecoin.

Over on Kalshi, another prediction platform, bettors told a similar story: shutdown odds fell from 70.6% to 59%.

Trump Touts Progress

The shift followed Trump's statement that he's "working hard with Congress" to secure full government funding through the end of the fiscal year in September.

"Republicans and Democrats have come together to get the vast majority of the government funded until September, while at the same time providing an extension to the Department of Homeland Security," Trump wrote on Truth Social.

He encouraged lawmakers from both parties to support the "bipartisan YES vote."

Why This Matters

Senate Democrats had previously threatened to block funding for the Department of Homeland Security following a fatal shooting in Minneapolis involving Border Patrol agents. That raised the specter of a partial government shutdown when federal funding expires on Jan. 30.

The stakes are real. The longest-ever U.S. government shutdown dragged on for 43 days last year, halting essential government functions and furloughing hundreds of thousands of federal workers while sparking intense partisan finger-pointing over who was to blame.