American Express Co (AXP) reports fourth-quarter earnings Friday morning, and the timing couldn't be more interesting. The financial giant faces questions about a potential credit card interest rate cap from President Donald Trump, but a strong earnings beat could remind everyone why Warren Buffett made this his second-favorite stock.

The Numbers Everyone's Watching

Wall Street analysts are looking for fourth-quarter revenue of $18.88 billion, a healthy jump from $17.18 billion in the same quarter last year, according to data from Benzinga Pro. On the earnings side, expectations sit at $3.54 per share, up from $3.04 a year ago.

The company has a pretty impressive track record lately. American Express has beaten revenue estimates for three straight quarters and in five of the past 10 quarters overall. The earnings streak is even more striking: seven consecutive quarterly beats, and nine out of the last 10.

What Analysts Are Saying

Several analysts have bumped up their price targets heading into the report, though most remain cautiously optimistic rather than wildly bullish. Here's the recent action:

• JPMorgan: Maintained Neutral rating, raised price target from $360 to $385
• TD Cowen: Maintained Hold rating, raised price target from $350 to $375
• Barclays: Maintained Equal-Weight rating, raised price target from $355 to $367

Notice a pattern? Higher price targets, but nobody's rushing to upgrade to a buy rating. That's partly because of the uncertainty around Trump's proposed interest rate cap for credit card companies.

The Trump Wild Card

President Trump has floated the idea of limiting interest rates that credit card companies can charge. That could sting American Express, but there's a more nuanced story here. The move might actually help American Express compete more effectively against market leaders Mastercard and Visa by leveling the playing field. Still, it's a wild card that makes guidance particularly important this quarter.

Why This Earnings Report Matters Beyond AXP

American Express isn't just another stock reporting earnings. It's a heavyweight that can move markets, and here's why.

First, there's the Berkshire Hathaway Inc (BRK.A) (BRK.B) connection. Warren Buffett has long been a believer in American Express, and the numbers show it. Berkshire owns around 22% of the company, making it the second-largest holding in the investment portfolio at 17.3% of assets. Only Apple ranks higher at 19.3%.

Then there's the ETF angle. American Express is the 10th largest holding in the State Street Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLF) at 2.53% of assets. But here's the kicker: Berkshire Hathaway itself is the top holding in that ETF at 11.4%, which means American Express's performance hits the fund twice.

The company also belongs to the Dow Jones Industrial Average. In the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA), American Express is the fifth-largest holding at 4.48% of assets. A big move in either direction could ripple through some of the most widely held funds in the market.

What to Listen For in the Report

The actual Q4 numbers matter, obviously. But the guidance might matter more. After third-quarter results, the company raised its full-year outlook, which gave investors confidence that momentum was building, not fading.

Last quarter, American Express reported strong Card Member spending, higher net interest income, and growth in revolving loan balances. Analysts and investors will be looking for more of the same this time around. Any softness in spending trends or loan growth could raise concerns about consumer health heading into 2025.

Where the Stock Stands

American Express stock trades at $358.73, sitting comfortably within its 52-week range of $220.43 to $387.49. Shares are up 13.5% over the past year, which is solid but not spectacular given the broader market's performance.

The stock's trading in a relatively tight range ahead of earnings, which suggests investors are waiting to see the numbers before making any big bets. Friday morning should tell us whether the optimism that's been building among analysts is justified, or if concerns about interest rate caps and consumer spending will take center stage.