Starbucks Corp (SBUX) had a bit of a roller coaster Thursday. Shares initially rose after the coffee giant unveiled a reimagined loyalty program and delivered mixed fiscal first-quarter results the day before, but the stock later gave back those gains and turned negative.

A New Era for Starbucks Rewards

The big news centers on Starbucks overhauling its loyalty program for 35.5 million active U.S. members. Starting March 10, the company will roll out a three-tiered structure featuring Green, Gold, and Reserve membership levels. Each tier delivers escalating benefits based on the number of Stars customers earn.

"We're redefining the industry with customer-focused benefits that set a new standard and ignite fandom," said Tressie Lieberman, Starbucks global chief brand officer.

The revamped program includes faster Star-earning rates and introduces a new 60-Star redemption option that takes $2 off any purchase. Here's where it gets interesting: Gold and Reserve members will enjoy Stars that never expire, while Green members can keep their Stars active through monthly engagement. It's a clever way to encourage consistent visits while rewarding the most dedicated customers.

Breaking an Eight-Quarter Slump

On the earnings front, Starbucks reported adjusted earnings of 56 cents per share on revenue of $9.92 billion for fiscal first quarter 2026. Analysts had been looking for 59 cents per share on revenue of $9.63 billion, so the company missed on earnings but beat on the top line.

The real story, though, is in the traffic numbers. The company posted 4% comparable store sales growth globally, with North America up 4% and China climbing 7%. More importantly, Starbucks reported U.S. comparable transaction growth for the first time in eight quarters, finally breaking a two-year slump that had investors worried.

"Our Q1 results demonstrate our 'Back to Starbucks' strategy is working and we believe we're ahead of schedule," said Brian Niccol, chairman and chief executive officer.

Looking ahead, management expects global and U.S. comparable store sales growth of at least 3% for fiscal 2026. The company guided to adjusted earnings per share between $2.15 and $2.40, landing right around the consensus estimate of $2.35. Starbucks also plans to open 600 to 650 new coffeehouses globally this year.

What Analysts Are Saying

On Thursday, RBC Capital Markets analyst Logan Reich reiterated an Outperform rating on Starbucks with a $105 price target. The move follows the company's Investor Day presentation, where management outlined multi-year financial targets focused on store productivity, cost efficiency, and boosting international profitability.

The broader analyst community remains bullish. Starbucks carries a Buy rating with an average price target of $99.78. Recent analyst activity includes:

• Wells Fargo: Overweight rating with price target raised to $110.00 (Jan. 29)
• BTIG: Buy rating, maintaining $105.00 target (Jan. 29)
• Wells Fargo: Overweight rating with price target raised to $105.00 (Jan. 27)

Valuation perspective: While the stock trades at a premium P/E multiple, the consensus Buy rating and expected 41% earnings growth suggest analysts believe the growth trajectory justifies the valuation. The average price target implies roughly 5% upside from current levels.

The Metrics That Matter

Looking at Starbucks' relative positioning, a few metrics stand out:

• Value: Weak (Score: 18.64) — The stock trades at a significant premium compared to peers
• Momentum: Weak (Score: 20.44) — Recent price action has lagged the broader market

Starbucks shares were down 0.54% at $94.64 at the time of publication Thursday.